By Urva tul Wusqa
Ever since its discovery this region has become a powerful point on the geopolitical map of the world owing to its rich resource base and its political instability. Current political, religious, ethnic and ideological crises and conflicts inherited by successive generations make violence inevitable and trigger social upheavals and other challenges affecting the world within a region as a whole.
The capacity of these instabilities in worsening into another global conflict is an area of serious consideration for both policymakers and scholars. The patterns by which regional instabilities in the Middle East create an environment for international conflict and possible evolutionary processes, might result in disastrous international war.
And that is why the Middle East’s instabilities are the microcosm of the present day problems of world security. Of course, these conflicts may develop into a third world war, but there is a way to prevent this scenario. The Middle Eastern countries’ tendencies to approach global processes as an instrument for their internecine struggle are latently productive of collision, which can transform, in consideration of a potent internal degradation factor, the region into the focus of a global conflict. The negative effects of immobile approach are much more severe and the members of the international society can not turn a blind eye to the situation and let the process in this volatile region progress
The causes of stability and conflict in the Middle East regions are bound in a multitude of political and socio-economic factors which are historical. The conflict that causes one of the most tensions is religion, including interreligious and intrareligious divisions, mainly between Sunni and Shia Muslims. This division has been instrumental for state and non-state actors to gain a political advantage; with Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming the principal agents of this conflict. For this reason, they engage in fights to capture a specific region as a proxy in nations like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, which make the region more insecure.
Also, outstanding issues of territorial tensions and nationalist ideologies, like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Kurdish movements for independence, have continued to fuel conflicts. Such conflicts not only contribute to putting the Middle East states in a fragile situation but also actively fuel the growth of radical movements, reaffirming insecurity both at the regional and global levels.
Invasion of foreign powers in the region has also contributed to the instability of the area in a big way. Taking into account the United States, Russia and the European nations for their strategic interest without considering the stability of the Middle East region for the long run. War operations, for instance, the US-led Iraq invasion in 2003, NATO participation in Libya 2011, Syria since 2011, and similarly many more, have regularly left a vacuum that the major terrorist groups, including ISIS, do not hesitate to fill. In addition, the region with an economy based on oil exports is in turn vulnerable to fluctuations in the global markets. This economic unstable condition often leads to a politically unstable state, and in turn, amplifies the chances of having conflict. Compounding these problems is climate change which magnifies competition for such basic necessities of life as water as well as arable land. Climate change effects such as high temperatures and scarcity of resources also fuel conflicts within and between countries, which further augurs poorly for the region.
The causes of stability and conflict in the Middle East are rooted in a multitude of political and socio-economic factors which are historical. The conflict that causes one of the most tensions is religion, including interreligious and intrareligious divisions, mainly between Sunni and Shia Muslims. This division has been instrumental for state and non-state actors to gain a political advantage; with Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming the principal agents of this conflict. For this reason, they engage in fights to capture a specific region as a proxy in nations like Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, which make the region more insecure. Also, outstanding issues of territorial tensions and nationalist ideologies like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Kurdish movements for independence have continued to fuel conflicts. Such conflicts not only contribute to putting the Middle East states in a fragile situation but also actively fuel the growth of the radical movements, reaffirming insecurity both at the regional and global levels.
China has rapidly increased its presence in the Middle East, and through its Belt and Road project another structural source of conflict with the USA emerges. Strains of rivalry between these world’s powers may ensue and put the Middle East on the precipice of conflict, a situation which is made worse by the breakdown of traditional global governing structures. Non-goverment organizations like the UN usually fail to balance the conflicts in this region, and hence decline collective security ambitions. Where diplomacy is lacking, acting alone, the strong powers consequently raise the odds of a war.
Another possible cause may be an imbroglio coming out of Middle Eastern turmoil in the shape of a large-scale terror attack. If an event like 9/11 should occur, the great powers will be drawn into several nation conflicts in the region which may lead to a world war. Another potential danger is the disputes in the territorial waters over some important sea ways– such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These points are central for world trade and, therefore, their closure can have severe economic and military consequences.
In order to prevent the Middle Eastern instabilities from triggering a war across the global platforms, the following must be done. Multipolar diplomacy must be enhanced more than ever. Engaging in peace negotiation like the JCPOA with Iran can bring down nuclear threats. Recapturing technological advancement can lower nuclear dangers. The Arab League and the OIC, for instance, need to be able to address conflict and encourage dialogue. And, of course, prevention is as effective as cure; the causes of instability must be dealt with too. Addressing socio-economic inequalities, integrating water resources to development, and mainstreaming sustainable water management reduce the attractiveness of extremism and mitigate resource-based conflict.
Another measure is to arrange to have as little outside interferences as possible. The effort it takes to implement such measures is rather great, whereas other actions can probably be finished in the blink of an eye. It has also emerged that foreign countries should not invade through the military but should seek diplomatic means since they compound the problem in the region.
International linkages for terror threats definitely have their role to play in prevention and cooperation with intelligence. Hence the confidence-building measures in order to facilitate some cooperation in the Middle East in the sphere of armaments and economic integration among other areas can help reduce state tensions too. Thus, there are certain shifts in the indicators of global governance regarding mechanisms to strengthen the role of the UN and international law in the resolution of conflict and preventing calls for conflicts endangering collective security.
And that is why the Middle East’s instabilities are the microcosm of the present day problems of world security. Of course, these conflicts may develop into a third world war, but there is a way to prevent this scenario. The Middle Eastern countries’ tendencies to approach global processes as an instrument for their internecine struggle are latently productive of collision, which can transform, in consideration of a potent internal degradation factor, the region into the focus of a global conflict. The negative effects of immobile approach are much more severe and the members of the international society can not turn a blind eye to the situation and let the process in this volatile region progress.
The writer is freelance columinist.
