By: Noman Hameed Mir
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia has been undergoing a profound transformation in recent decades, with the Indo-Pacific region emerging as a critical focal point. The country, standing at the crossroads of domestic instability and shifting global dynamics. For years, the country has struggled to find a stable and coherent foreign policy direction, often oscillating between alliances and strategies without clear long-term objectives. As political turmoil, economic challenges, and security concerns continue to mar its internal stability, Pakistan need to rethink its strategic direction. The question now is whether Pakistan will adapt to the rapidly changing global environment or remain entrenched in outdated policies that may hinder its future growth and regional influence.
A Barrier to Progress
Pakistan’s internal instability has been a significant obstacle to its ability to fully capitalize on regional opportunities. From political fragmentation to economic volatility, the country faces a host of challenges that undermine its ability to pursue a coherent and effective foreign policy. During the Cold War, Pakistan aligned with the U.S., becoming a frontline state against Soviet expansion. This alliance brought military aid and economic support, but also entrenched the military’s role in governance—a trend solidified by three coups (1958, 1977, 1999). The 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, a watershed moment, exposed Pakistan’s vulnerability to internal fractures and regional isolation. Post-9/11, Pakistan again became a U.S. ally in the “War on Terror,” securing $33 billion in aid between 2002–2018. However, this partnership collapsed amid distrust over counterterrorism efforts, pushing Pakistan closer to China.
This dependency on external powers underscores Pakistan’s struggle for strategic autonomy. While India leveraged non-alignment to diversify partnerships, Pakistan’s reliance on transactional alliances has left it reactive rather than visionary.
Political Turmoil and Governance Issues
Pakistan’s political landscape has long been marked by instability. The country has experienced multiple military coups, civilian governments with short tenures, Political instability is not new. Since independence, it has cycled through 23 Prime Ministers, none completing a full term. The military’s shadow looms large: direct rule for 33 years and indirect influence otherwise.
The judiciary’s politicization exacerbates instability. The 2017 disqualification of PM Nawaz Sharif over undeclared income—a ruling critics called “judicial overreach”—contrasts with India’s stable transitions, where no PM has been removed by courts since 1991.
The recent political crisis, exemplified by the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the growing friction between political parties, has further exacerbated the governance deficit. This turmoil has prevented Pakistan from adopting a clear foreign policy stance, especially regarding its engagement in regional initiatives like the IPEF.
While other countries in the region, such as India and Vietnam, have embraced economic integration and regional cooperation, Pakistan’s political instability has made it difficult to craft a unified approach to these challenges. The resulting uncertainty has caused both domestic and international actors to question Pakistan’s ability to be a reliable partner in the Indo-Pacific.
Recent Years of Struggles and Dependence on External Support
Pakistan’s economy has faced a series of crises in recent years, including high inflation, unemployment, energy shortages, and foreign debt. The country’s economic struggles are compounded by a lack of economic diversification, with heavy dependence on foreign aid, primarily from China and Saudi Arabia. While the CPEC has brought in some infrastructure development, it has also led to an over-reliance on China, putting Pakistan in a vulnerable position. Pakistan’s reliance on foreign aid and loans from countries like China and Saudi Arabia, as well as international institutions like the IMF, has limited its ability to chart an independent economic course. This dependence on external actors often forces Pakistan to make compromises that do not always align with its long-term national interests. This economic fragility has limited Pakistan’s ability to fully participate in global economic initiatives, particularly those driven by powers such as the United States, Japan, and India. Pakistan’s refusal to engage in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which focuses on supply chain resilience, clean energy, and digital economy, risks leaving the country isolated from the growing economic opportunities in the region.
Pakistan’s economy is caught in a vicious cycle: 23 IMF bailouts since 1958, with the latest 3 billion package (2023) tied to austerity measures. Inflation hit 383billion package (2023) tied to austerity measures. Inflation hit 38125 billion (43% of GDP). China holds 30% of this debt, raising concerns of a “debt trap” akin to Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port fiasco.
Pakistan’s Strategic Dilemma
Pakistan’s foreign policy is currently stuck in a strategic bind. On the one hand, its deepening relationship with China, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), offers economic benefits and infrastructure development. However, this relationship comes with limitations, particularly in terms of economic diversification and regional integration. On the other hand, India’s growing influence and active participation in global and regional initiatives like the IPEF and the Quad make it a significant strategic rival for Pakistan. India’s rising economic and diplomatic clout, combined with its military modernization, further complicates Pakistan’s position in the region. In contrast, Pakistan’s foreign policy continues to be dominated by its strategic alliance with China. While this partnership has brought some benefits, particularly through the CPEC, it has also left Pakistan diplomatically isolated in certain respects. The growing influence of India, combined with Pakistan’s reluctance to engage with broader regional initiatives, risks further marginalizing Pakistan on the global stage.
Rethinking Pakistan’s Strategic Direction Policies
It is imperative that Pakistan rethink its strategic direction and adopt a more balanced, forward-looking approach. A few areas for reform and reorientation could help Pakistan navigate this complex geopolitical environment.
The political crisis in Pakistan must be resolved through institutional reforms that strengthen democratic governance and reduce the influence of the military in civilian affairs. A stable political environment is crucial for long-term policy continuity and effective foreign relations. Judicial independence, electoral reforms, and accountability mechanisms are essential for rebuilding public trust in the political system and ensuring that Pakistan’s foreign policy is not dictated by short-term political interests.
Pakistan’s geographical location, sitting at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, provides it with strategic advantages. By developing transport corridors, energy pipelines, and trade routes that link these regions.
Diversifying Alliances
Maintaining its strong relationship with China, Pakistan must also seek to engage more actively with other regional and global powers, including India, the United States, and ASEAN countries. This would allow Pakistan to benefit from a broader range of economic and security partnerships, reducing its dependence on any single country. Initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) should be explored more critically, as they could offer Pakistan opportunities for infrastructure development, clean energy investments, and trade diversification. Economic Reform and Stability: Addressing Pakistan’s internal economic challenges is a prerequisite for any meaningful foreign policy reorientation. Pakistan must focus on economic diversification, tax reforms, and industrial development to reduce its reliance on foreign loans and aid. Strengthening its manufacturing base, improving energy security, and investing in human capital through education and skills development will help Pakistan become a more resilient and competitive economy.
Regional Cooperation and Security:
Pakistan must recognize that regional cooperation—especially with its neighbors in South Asia and Central Asia—is essential for long-term security and economic growth. Pakistan’s relationship with India, despite historical tensions, should be reexamined in the context of shared regional challenges, such as climate change, energy security, and counterterrorism. Diplomatic channels should be opened to explore areas of cooperation, which could help stabilize the region and pave the way for economic collaboration.
Conclusion: The Need for a Nuanced Foreign Policy
Pakistan’s current trajectory, defined by domestic instability and a narrow foreign policy focus, stands in stark contrast to India’s rise as a regional power. India’s active participation in global and regional initiatives, coupled with its growing economic and military strength, has positioned it as a key player in the Indo-Pacific. In contrast, Pakistan’s failure to adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape could lead to further economic marginalization and diplomatic isolation.
Pakistan must reconsider its foreign policy priorities, adopting a more nuanced approach that allows it to balance its relationship and rethink its approach. By diversifying alliances, implementing economic reforms, engaging in regional cooperation, and addressing its internal political challenges China while also engaging with other powers in the Indo-Pacific. By doing so, Pakistan can secure its position in the region and unlock new opportunities for economic growth, trade, and regional cooperation. Otherwise, it risks being relegated to the sidelines as India continues its rise as a dominant force in South Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. It also comes with limitations that could hinder Pakistan’s long-term strategic autonomy.
The writer is a freelance columnist.
