The development of technology, particularly digital technology, has become a driving force behind new trends in politics, economics, media and virtually every other aspect of human life. This technological revolution is reshaping the world as we know it, altering the way societies function, interact and compete.
One of the most profound areas impacted by this transformation is the realm of warfare. The advent of advanced technologies has not only changed the tools and methods of combat but has also influenced the strategies, tactics and decision-making processes that define modern and future conflicts. As we observe today, there is a relentless arms race among global and regional powers, with non-state organizations, such as Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda, also playing significant roles.
These groups, often characterized by their terrorist objectives, seek to gain advantages not only in technological capabilities but also in psychological operations, cyber activities and tactical innovation. Emerging technologies, such as directed energy weapons, hypersonic missiles, drones and autonomous vehicles equipped with precision weaponry, are revolutionizing the battlefield.
These advancements are forcing military leaders to rethink traditional approaches to warfare and adapt to the rapidly evolving landscape of modern combat. Despite these technological advancements, the fundamental nature of war has remained remarkably consistent throughout history. From the ancient teachings of Sun Tzu and Thucydides to the strategic theories of Clausewitz and through the major conflicts of the 20th and 21st centuries, war has persisted as a tool for achieving political and economic objectives. It remains an extension of state policy, a means by which nations and groups seek to assert their influence, secure resources, or achieve ideological goals. However, the tools and methods have evolved dramatically and shows no signs of slowing down. As technology continues to advance, the ways in which wars are fought will become increasingly complex, with new domains of conflict emerging and traditional boundaries blurring.
While technology is a critical factor shaping the future of warfare, it is not the only one. Environmental changes, particularly those driven by global warming, are poised to have a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape. The scarcity of essential resources such as food and water, exacerbated by climate change, is likely to trigger economic instability, mass migrations and heightened tensions between nations. These environmental pressures could lead to significant disruptions in the global order, creating fertile ground for conflict. In addition to environmental challenges, the rise of ideological extremism presents another major threat.
Terrorist organizations, driven by radical ideologies, will continue to seek ways to destabilize existing power structures and establish their own visions of order, such as the creation of an Islamic caliphate. These factors compel us to look ahead and consider how to mitigate future threats, particularly those of a military nature. As the nature of conflict evolves, so too must the strategies, structures and capabilities of military organizations.\
The role of armed forces in state policy is largely determined by their organizational structure and the resources they possess. These factors, in turn, are influenced by a nation’s geopolitical conditions, the nature of potential adversaries and the alignment of strategic interests with other international actors.
For nations with significant disparities in power, security often hinges on participation in political alliances or the creation of regional security frameworks. The development programmes of armed forces are typically designed to address known threats to national security. In modern militaries, such as those of the USA and Great Britain, the process of transformation is guided not only by immediate threats but also by long-term strategic goals, anticipated theatres of operation and assessments of both friendly and enemy capabilities.
It is important to clarify the terminology used to describe armed conflict and war. While these terms are often used interchangeably, they carry distinct meanings. According to a ruling by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia on 2 October 2, an armed conflict exists whenever there is a resort to armed force between states or prolonged armed violence between governmental authorities and organized armed groups, or between such groups within a single state. The concept of armed conflict is broader than that of war, encompassing all manifestations of armed struggle. In contrast, the term “war” typically refers to conflicts in which states or societies mobilize the majority of their resources and engage in highly intensified military activity.
The future of warfare will be shaped by a complex interplay of technological, environmental and ideological factors. As nations and organizations adapt to these changes, the strategies and structures of armed forces will need to evolve in tandem. By anticipating these developments and preparing for the challenges they present, the international community can work toward mitigating the risks of future conflicts and fostering a more stable and secure global order. The study of future wars is not merely an academic exercise; it is a vital endeavour that will inform the policies and decisions of nations for decades to come.
The primary objective of this study is to outline the potential course of future armed conflicts based on forecasts from leading research centres and to emphasize the need for a fresh perspective on these issues, one that transcends the current global tensions.
The focus of the research is on armed conflicts, particularly the ways in which they may be conducted in the future and the domains in which they will unfold. It is posited that the causes and forms of future armed conflicts will evolve in response to dynamic changes in the geopolitical and economic landscape, accelerated technological progress and the effects of global climate change.
The timing and location of conflicts, the technologies employed and the scale of their impact will influence these changes. Future conflicts are expected to span all domains, involving both peer competitors and asymmetrical engagements between major powers and smaller states or organizations. These conflicts may take the form of conventional international or internal wars, ranging in intensity from limited skirmishes to full-scale engagements.
Additionally, proxy wars— conflicts fought indirectly through third parties— will continue to play a significant role, particularly in the “grey zone” of hybrid warfare. One of the defining characteristics of future conflicts will be the increasing importance of cyberspace and outer space as domains of warfare.
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations will further transform the nature of combat, with AI systems supporting— and in some cases, making— critical decisions on the battlefield. The automation and autonomy of weapons systems will also play a pivotal role, enabling faster and more precise responses to emerging threats. As these technologies become more sophisticated, the line between human and machine decision-making will blur, raising ethical and strategic questions about the role of human judgment in warfare.
The future of warfare will be shaped by a complex interplay of technological, environmental and ideological factors. As nations and organizations adapt to these changes, the strategies and structures of armed forces will need to evolve in tandem. By anticipating these developments and preparing for the challenges they present, the international community can work toward mitigating the risks of future conflicts and fostering a more stable and secure global order. The study of future wars is not merely an academic exercise; it is a vital endeavour that will inform the policies and decisions of nations for decades to come.
