By: Atia Ibnat Rifah and Azizul Hakim Rakib
India has a very ancient dream to establish itself as a regional power in the geopolitical context of South Asia. But the country’s recent foreign policy failures and deteriorating relations with neighbouring states have made this strategy increasingly complex. The strain in bilateral relations, especially after the change of government in Bangladesh, may cause long-term damage to India.
India’s influence in South Asia was once absolute, but now its position is shaky due to its inadequate foreign policy towards its Asian neighbours, specially the South Asian neighbours. Relations with once close allies such as Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and even Bangladesh have been strained. This poses major challenges to India’s external trade, political influence and security strategy as these South Asian states were major trading partners.
The main objective of India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy was to create a relationship with neighboring states where India would be at the centre. But in reality, under this policy, India has narrowed the space for mutual respect and cooperation while prioritizing its self-interests. Bangladesh can be taken as an appropriate example. Bangladesh has long served as one of India’s major commercial markets. India largely maintained a monopoly in consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, agricultural products and technology markets in particular. But with recent political instability and changes in government, this trade relationship has begun to fray. A renegotiation of bilateral agreements could also change India’s trade gains.
On the other hand, due to the weakness of India’s foreign policy, China is strengthening its ties with South Asian states. China’s commercial and strategic ties are rapidly expanding with Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka— and even Bangladesh, as it is investing huge amounts of money in these states under the ‘Belt and Road Initiaitive’. Maldives has already declared India’s military presence unacceptable. Nepal has also distanced itself from India on several important issues and moved closer to China. The level of Chinese investment and infrastructure cooperation in Bangladesh is increasing day by day. This is not a good sign for India’s long-term strategic interests. If India fails to maintain credibility with its neighbours, regional politics in South Asia could tip the balance in favor of China.
Another big challenge for India is its relationship with Myanmar. Myanmar’s military government does not attach much importance to India’s political or diplomatic position, because the country’s strategic and military relations are mainly dependent on China. Although the Indian Army has been conducting operations against insurgent groups in Myanmar’s border areas, this military cooperation has not brought any significant improvement in the long-term relationship between the two countries. As a result, India is steadily becoming strategically weaker in Southeast Asia as well.
Additionally, India’s notorious policy of ‘Shoot at Sight’ in the borders of its neighbours is becoming another major reason which is working as a catalyst for anti-Indian sentiment in its neighboring states. According to this policy India kills a huge number of civilians of its neighbouring states in the borderlands. Neighbors like Bangladesh are becoming the victims of this notorious policy. India promised several times with its neighbours to stop the use of lethal weapons in the borderlands but every time it has violated the promises.
The geopolitics of South Asia is changing rapidly. If India wants to survive as a regional power, it has to think of a strategy to rebuild relations with neighboring countries. Building relationships just for political gain is not sustainable in the long run—as the current state of India’s foreign policy proves. Now is the time, if India really wants to be a regional power, it has to regain the place of trust of its neighbours. Otherwise, India will face greater diplomatic challenges in the future in the face of China’s growing influence.
Recent moves of India show that the tension in India’s current relationship with Bangladesh is mainly political. Although the Awami League government was a close ally of India, India is about to lose that advantage in the current political context. India’s influence in the internal politics of Bangladesh was enormous earlier, but it is not so real now. It is not clear how friendly the new government will be towards India.
However, it is already seen that a kind of cold current is going on in the reconstruction of India-Bangladesh relations. As a result, India’s business community is also worried. The Bangladesh market is an important area for India, and it is becoming difficult for them to retain this market. A trend of ‘Boycott India’ or ‘India Out’ is becoming prominent now, as a result of India’s encroachment in the politics of Bangladesh. People of Bangladesh just finished a successful revolution in the August last year which deposed India’s closest political ally in South Asia, the AL government.
Now, usually the people will never accept any state which supports AL. By supporting AL and criticizing the current government India is gambling with the feeling of the ordinary citizens of Bangladesh which will not bring a good result for India. Instead of involving itself in the internal politics of Bangladesh, India could carry a good relation with this country by giving importance to the public sentiment. This kind of wrong move is becoming the reason for the decreasing of India’s influence in South Asia.
The geopolitics of South Asia is changing rapidly. If India wants to survive as a regional power, it has to think of a strategy to rebuild relations with neighboring countries. Building relationships just for political gain is not sustainable in the long run—as the current state of India’s foreign policy proves. Now is the time, if India really wants to be a regional power, it has to regain the place of trust of its neighbours. Otherwise, India will face greater diplomatic challenges in the future in the face of China’s growing influence.
Both writers belong to the Department of International Relations, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh
