Pakistan is bracing for a severe water crisis next month, with the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) warning of a 43% shortfall in April due to declining river inflows, low snowfall, and dry weather forecasts, a private news outlet reported on Thursday.
The warning comes at a critical juncture as farmers begin harvesting wheat and prepare to sow summer crops including cotton, rice, and sugarcane. With water reservoirs nearing dead levels, major agricultural regions such as Punjab and Sindh are expected to face major irrigation shortages.
At a recent meeting chaired by Irsa member Sahibzada Muhammad Shabbir, the Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) approved water availability criteria for the Kharif 2025 season (April–September) but finalized allocations only for April due to highly uncertain climate projections.
New data from the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) paints a bleak picture. Tarbela and Chashma dams have both reached their minimum operating levels with no usable live storage, while Mangla Dam is only 20 feet above its dead level.
Tarbela, the country’s largest dam, is at 1,402 feet — the threshold for dead storage — while Chashma stands at 638.15 feet. Mangla, though slightly better, is still far below optimal levels. Officials warn this sharp depletion could seriously impact irrigation and hydropower generation.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), snowfall in the Indus and Jhelum catchments during winter was just 26.8 inches — 31% below the normal 49.7 inches. Coupled with lower rainfall and above-normal temperature forecasts from April to June, the country is facing reduced water availability during a crucial growing period.
Irsa reviewed water distribution during the Rabi 2024–25 season and reported an 18% shortage by March 20 — slightly higher than the projected 16%. Despite the increase, officials said the situation had been managed effectively under the circumstances.
Due to the volatile weather outlook, the committee will reassess the situation in early May before making further decisions. “The evolving weather patterns and lower snowmelt require careful monitoring,” an Irsa official noted, warning that further cuts in allocations could follow if conditions worsen.
Experts have called on authorities to urgently adopt improved water conservation measures and better reservoir management in light of worsening climate change impacts. The IAC meeting was attended by provincial irrigation officials, Wapda representatives, and senior managers of the Tarbe
