ISLAMABAD: The recent incident in Pahalgam and India’s subsequent unilateral actions are not isolated events but part of a consistent and calculated strategic approach aimed at reshaping regional dynamics to Pakistan’s disadvantage, according to national security analysts and policy experts.
This view was articulated during a high-level policy session titled “The Pahalgam Attack: Dissecting the Motives and Strategic Fallout” held at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) in ISLAMABAD.
The session brought together a panel of scholars, former diplomats, defense experts, and media professionals to analyze the broader implications of the incident and the pattern of strategic behavior exhibited by India.
Speakers emphasized that the timing of the attack, the absence of credible evidence against any perpetrators, and the immediate and coordinated media blitz from Indian outlets all point to a premeditated effort to not only malign Pakistan but also reshape the geopolitical narrative in the region.
Among the post-attack measures were India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the closure of the Attari border — actions that the panel described as coercive and devoid of legal or diplomatic basis.
To mount an effective response, the panelists recommended a long-term, strategically anchored approach by Pakistan that reaffirms its commitment to peace while robustly countering disinformation, exposing the orchestrated nature of such incidents, and engaging global partners to uphold regional stability and justice.
Among the distinguished speakers were Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja, Executive Director of the Center for International Strategic Studies, AJK; Sheikh Waleed Rasool, Director of the Institute of Multi-Track Dialogue Development & Diplomatic Studies; Dr. Nauman Sattar of Quaid-e-Azam University; veteran journalist Iftikhar Gilani; Khalid Rahman, Chairman of IPS; Ambassador (Retd.) Syed Abrar Hussain, Vice Chairman of IPS; and defense analyst Said Nazir.
Dr. Asma Shakir Khawaja contended that the attack appeared carefully choreographed to cast a communal hue over the Kashmir dispute, further deepening divisions and shifting international attention. She pointed out that incidents of this nature often coincide with major foreign visits to India, suggesting a deliberate attempt to divert scrutiny and manage narratives through a hyper-nationalist lens fueled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political doctrine.
Sheikh Waleed Rasool, drawing on historical context, stressed that Pahalgam holds deep political sensitivity and that such attacks follow a recurring pattern in terms of motive, execution, and beneficiaries.
He referenced the Ajit Doval doctrine, which advocates for offensive strategies against perceived adversaries, and highlighted how timing and media narratives have repeatedly aligned to cast Pakistan in a negative light. “This is not merely an unfortunate event—it is part of a calculated, multidimensional strategy with global ramifications,” he said.
Dr. Nauman Sattar situated the incident within a broader post-9/11 global paradigm, where India’s strategic narratives have successfully capitalized on global counterterrorism rhetoric to frame Pakistan as an antagonist. He warned that the long-term fallout of such narratives would not only harm bilateral ties but also disrupt Pakistan’s regional and international partnerships.
Defense analyst Said Nazir highlighted how incidents like these are used as cover for undermining the socio-political framework of Indian-administered Kashmir. “There is a clear pattern of strategic moves aimed at eroding whatever political representation and autonomy remains in the Valley,” he said.
He also warned that India’s threats to revoke the Indus Waters Treaty could escalate into a water security crisis, describing it as a “red line” that directly impacts Pakistan’s national interest.
Iftikhar Gilani noted that targeting tourists — traditionally considered off-limits even during the height of militancy — marks a disturbing escalation. “India has long used such high-visibility incidents to inflame communal tensions and manufacture consent for hardline policies,” he said, adding that it fits a pattern designed to provoke public backlash against Muslims and Pakistan.
The session concluded with a call for Pakistan to adopt a nuanced, dignified yet resolute policy posture. Speakers urged for a vigorous diplomatic campaign to counter propaganda, strengthen international alliances, and present factual, verifiable accounts of such incidents to global forums.
There was broad agreement that framing the narrative early and consistently would be key to safeguarding national interests and regional stability.
In his concluding remarks, IPS Chairman Khalid Rahman emphasized the importance of critically analyzing Indian media and political narratives. He noted that the speed with which the media campaign was launched, without any credible evidence or verified information, was indicative of a planned disinformation drive meant to manipulate public perception and strategic policy discourse.
