ISLAMABAD: As Pakistan-India tensions escalate over a deadly attack in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), experts warn that India’s military shortcomings could constrain Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s options.
Despite a rapid push for military modernisation after the 2019 conflict with Pakistan, experts cited by The New York Times say India’s armed forces remain ill-prepared for a full confrontation, with much of its equipment still outdated. Although billions were invested in arms procurement and domestic defence manufacturing, analysts caution that India’s military transformation remains incomplete.
During the 2019 face-off, Pakistan downed an Indian fighter jet, exposing gaps in India’s defence capabilities. Five years later, a parliamentary report indicated that while the share of state-of-the-art equipment nearly doubled, more than half of India’s arsenal remains classified as old.
Following the killing of over two dozen tourists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam valley, blamed on Pakistan, New Delhi has threatened to sever Pakistan’s water supply—a move Islamabad has termed an “act of war.” Diplomatic ties between the two nuclear-armed rivals remain fragile, and the prospect of escalation is heightened by global distractions elsewhere.
Analysts suggest that, wary of exposing military weaknesses, Modi may opt for limited airstrikes or special forces operations rather than risking a wider conflict. Pakistan, for its part, has vowed a proportional response to any Indian attack.
India’s rising domestic pressure to respond is tempered by the risks of miscalculation. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s leadership, long backed by the military establishment, may find strategic advantage in prolonged tensions.
India’s military faces mounting pressure as it prepares for the possibility of a two-front conflict with China and Pakistan. After the 2020 border clashes with China, India accelerated procurement of Russian missile defence systems, French fighter jets, and U.S. drones, while investing heavily in local arms production.
However, bureaucratic hurdles, financial limitations, and geopolitical challenges persist. Defence spending remains below 2% of GDP, with vast national development needs competing for resources. Efforts to streamline defence procurement have faced setbacks, including the death of a key reformist general in 2021.
Despite India’s economy being nearly 10 times larger than Pakistan’s, experts argue that its military is not yet equipped for sustained warfare. As tensions grow, the credibility of India’s military upgrade efforts is set to be tested, with regional powers like China closely watching developments.
