The cotton crop collapse has merely added to Pakistan’s export woes. It is problematic in itself that Pakistan is so dependent on textiles for its exports. Be that as it may, there is a certain logic in this, because instead of exporting raw cotton, it makes more sense to convert it into textiles, and then export them. However, it has meant that if cotton growth has been insufficient, textile manufacturers have imported the amount shortage. However, this year, the shortage might just be too great to overcome. The production this year is only 5.571 million vales, a 34 percent drop from last year, and the lowest production in 34 years. The shortfall is 2.4 million bales. The first reason is insufficient planting, as farmers have turned to sugar, because of the pricing incentives that have been offered by the government under pressure by the politically strong sugar lobby. The problem with sugar is that attempts to export it have led to local shortages, and people suffering immensely from food inflation. Sugar, after all, is a vital food item, while textiles are not.
Apart from that, acreage and seed quality are also posing a problem. It must be remembered that cotton seed is highly developed, and thus artificial, and requires constant scientific research to be maintained. That research has not been undertaken of late, nor has the required investment been made, with the virtually inevitable result that seed quality, and thus productivity, has suffered.
Another problem seems to the result of the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Pakistani textile exporters made up these shortages from imports of Chinese cotton. However, the USA has begun to object to any cotton originating from Xinjiang, as it may involve labour by Uighur prisoners. As there are other difficulties, importing from India is not really an option. The government must pay attention to the cotton crop collapse, which is all the more worrisome because it has not been caused by any pest attack. It must not only fund research, but reverse the way it favours sugarcane, which it may have started to ensure food security, but which it expanded because of the sugar lobby.
