The US has declared that all its troops would leave Afghanistan by September 11. Washington is least bothered about the consequences of its action inside Afghanistan and the region. The Taliban have warned that they would resume attacks against foreign forces if they do not withdraw from the country by the May 1 deadline agreed with former US President Donald Trump. President Ashraf Ghani would like the world to believe that Afghan security forces were fully capable of defending the country. More realistic Afghan politicians have however warned of a bloody civil war after the US and allied forces leave Afghanistan without brokering a deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
The perception that the US would not be able to extricate itself from Afghanistan without Pakistan’s support has turned out to be a fantasy. The four-month time before the last contingent of foreign troops leaves Afghanistan provides a window of opportunity to those who want Peace in Afghanistan and the region. With US air support, advanced technology, trainers and funds no more available to the Afghan government, it would not take the battle-hardened and ferocious Talban long before they start knocking at Kabul’s gates. Meanwhile the horrors of the civil war would displace millions of Afghans who would make a bee line to Pakistan as they did in 1980s. The disturbed conditions in Afghanistan would favour Pakistan specific terrorist groups who would make use of the situation to increase terrorist attacks inside Pakistan in an attempt to destabilise the country and create Afghanistan like situation here.
In order to play a significant role as a peace maker Pakistan needs to be seen as an honest broker rather than a partisan. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmud Qureshi needs to hold extensive talks with his Afghan counterpart Hanif Atmar while in Turkey to find how Pakistan can have a more nuanced Afghan policy. With about twenty countries attending the Istanbul Conference, attempt should be made specially to encourage Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries like China, Iran, Central Asian states and Russia to evolve a joint strategy to promote peace and maintain unity in the multi-ethnic Afghanistan.
