With the September 11 U.S. and NATO troop exit date from Afghanistan nearing and reports that the move could be as early as July, things are heating up. As expected, the Taliban have accelerated their campaign further against the Afghan government and apart from regular attacks on its armed forces, they have started to secure various districts of the country without facing significant resistance. Efforts made so far, to get the Taliban back to the negotiating table and agree upon a maintainable ceasefire and workable peace deal, have failed. This has both regional and international stakeholders worried, and rightly so; if the Taliban continue on this path and regain control of the country, the 13-year long deadly US intervention in Afghanistan will have been for nothing. The USA is now scrambling to secure air bases in neighbouring countries, including Pakistan and even Russia, to keep an eye on what they are leaving behind. This information was revealed by a New York Times exposé a week ago and was confirmed by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who told Congress that the military had already begun conducting combat operations and surveillance in Afghanistan from outside the country’s borders to prevent a Taliban takeover.
NATO has raised valid concerns over the safety of Kabul airport and that any diplomatic presence in Afghanistan would depend on a ‘functioning and secure airport’. Looking at the Taliban’s trajectory of violence in the past year since, Kabul can easily become a very dangerous place for foreigners in the absence of a US or NATO troop presence. Pakistan has a crucial role to play in all of this, especially the army. Although Pakistan has provided bases to the USA before, the last one being Shamsi Airfield that was vacated in 2011 after the Salala incident, things have changed since then and the once strong aid-based alliance has been sullied by various events, not least of which is the Osama Bin Laden Abbottabad raid. There is also an overreliance on Pakistan to get the Taliban to rejoin the peace process before the exit. As matters progress all eyes will be on developments in Afghanistan and each country will be framing its strategy while keeping in mind its own interests. Pakistan too should adopt such an approach and not commit to anything that it may regret later.
