New cold war in the offing

The Cold War that began between the USA and the USSR immediately after the end of World War II almost divided the entire world into two blocs. The era featured witch-hunts, backyard bomb shelters, the space race, missile crises, détente, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Star Wars defence proposal. However with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the dismemberment of the USSR, the renouncing of Communism by East European nations in the late 1980s and the 1990s in the backdrop of the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, the USA emerged as the sole superpower in the world. It was hoped that the new world order that would emerge as a result of these developments would prove to be a harbinger of security and prosperity. However the attempts by the USA as the sole superpower to refashion the world to serve its global strategic interests gave birth to the phenomenon of terrorism, jeopardizing global security and prosperity.

During this period the world has also witnessed the emergence of China as a global economic power, posing strategic competition to the USA, which sees it as a threat to its status as the sole superpower and the world leader. This has triggered a US-China rivalry with snowballing intensity.

The US and its western allies have launched a persistent and vigorous campaign to soil China’s image in regards to its human rights situation. Dutch Parliament adopted a motion on 25 February describing Chinese actions in the Xinjiang province as ‘genocide’. The Dutch motion was preceded by a similar resolution by the Canadian Parliament on 22 February.  A statement released by the US State Department also alleged, “Since at least March 2017, the People’s Republic of China, under the direction and control of the Chinese Communist Party, has committed an ongoing series of crimes including arbitrary imprisonment, separating children from their families, and forced sterilization and abortions for Uighur women.” The statement also accused President Xi Jinping of hiding the atrocities by obfuscation, propaganda and coercion.   In the wake of new security legislation in Hong Kong, US lawmakers approved new Hong Kong-related sanctions which envisaged penalties for banks doing business with Chinese officials.

A report by the Hong Kong Free Press contended that the growth rate of population in Xinjiang has shrunk by about two-thirds within two years.  A new report by Human Rights Watch has also alleged that the Chinese government has increased groundless prosecutions in the far western region, with Uighurs and other Muslims subjected to long prison sentences in Xinjiang.

However the spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang Wenbin, in a press conference recently strongly dismissed the notion of genocide by revealing that between 1978 and 2018, the Uighur population in Xinjiang grew from 5.55 million to 12.71 million. That means the Uyghur population in Xinjiang more than doubled over the past four decades or so.  This figure is higher than the total population growth rate in Xinjiang and 10-plus times higher than that of the Han population during the same period.

To be honest, the Chinese narrative of participatory development as enshrined in the BRI enjoys unrivalled acceptance across the globe and is much better than economic initiatives taken by the USA and its allies which invariably had political motives. China is unstoppable as predicted by economists and world watchers. It is destined to become the number one economic power, and possibly military as well, in the near future. The world is faced with enormous challenges like poverty, climate change, terrorism and conflicts like Palestine and Kashmir. Their rivalry will compound, whereas cooperation can usher in a new era of peace and security.  The USA bears the major blame for this confrontation and must revisit its ‘Stop China’ policy

As part of its efforts to stop China’s predicted ascendency as number one economic power, the USA has also unleashed a number of punitive measures against Chinese companies and also started a trade war with the country itself. It is also trying everything possible to scuttle growing Chinese influence across Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, where China has made massive investments under its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative).

In addition to the above steps in the economic and political domain, the USA has also adopted military posturing against China in the South China Sea region. It has unfurled efforts to enhance cooperation with its allies on China’s western and eastern flanks, including with Australia, Japan and India. It is fiercely opposing the BRI and its flagship project CPEC with the help of India, which is a rival of both China and Pakistan. The ripples generated by the US policy towards China are also being felt in our part of the world, which evidently is one of the major areas of conflict between the two powers.

The USA looks askance at Pakistan’s close collaboration with China as tensions between her and China continue to mount. The dilemma for Pakistan is that while it regards CPEC as a game changer and China as its  iron brother it cannot afford rupture of ties with the USA or annoying it to the extent of estrangement. It has to carry out a balancing act whereby while keeping its relations with China on an ever high trajectory it also remains engaged with the USA in the economic and other areas.

China however is not taking US hostility lying-down. It has come up with its own military strategy not only to assert and protect her territorial claims, but is also pursuing an aggressive foreign policy.  It has been strongly rebutting US accusations regarding her strategic ambitions and its allegedly dismal record on human rights. It is also pressing ahead with its BRI initiative more vigorously, unruffled by the US moves. It has also taken retaliatory measures wih regard to the trade war triggered by the USA, though stressing the need for cooperation instead of the confrontation being pursued by the USA. No doubt the rivalry between the two in the form of trade war has sent jitters in the global economy.

It is disappointing to note that the rivalry between the two countries continues to further precipitate itself. The US Congress is currently debating the China-specific ‘Strategic Competition Act’ which is viewed by many as a new form of political and economic discrimination against China and her friends all over the world. The Act is regarded not only as an intrusion into China’s internal affairs but also in the foreign relations of other countries that have long-standing ties with China. The foregoing realities are strong pointers towards the beginning of a new Cold War.

To be honest, the Chinese narrative of participatory development as enshrined in the BRI enjoys unrivalled acceptance across the globe and is much better than economic initiatives taken by the USA and its allies which invariably had political motives. China is unstoppable as predicted by economists and world watchers. It is destined to become the number one economic power, and possibly military as well, in the near future. The world is faced with enormous challenges like poverty, climate change, terrorism and conflicts like Palestine and Kashmir. Their rivalry will compound, whereas cooperation can usher in a new era of peace and security.  The USA bears the major blame for this confrontation and must revisit its ‘Stop China’ policy.