‘The message from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] could hardly be clearer. Business as usual means global temperatures will rise by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within two decades. Preventing that happening will require a massive and rapid drop in the amount of greenhouse gases being emitted.’ – Excerpt from a recent Guardian article ‘Fairness will be key to successfully tackling climate change crisis’ by Larry Elliott
In no uncertain terms, the latest report by IPCC titled ‘Climate change 2021: The physical science basis’ points out that climate change is already happening all around the world, and the role of humans in climate change is ‘unequivocal’. In the words of the Report ‘It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.’ A Financial Times editorial ‘Time is running short to avert “hell on earth”’ that came out on August 9, highlighted the profound standing of the Report as ‘A landmark assessment of climate change, released on Monday as a consensus statement by 234 international scientists, makes clear that the world faces a frightening future even if the global economy is decarbonised rapidly. Failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions deeply would lead within a few decades to what a leading climatologist called “hell on earth”.’
The upcoming COP26 meeting later this year in Glasgow is unprecedented, since given the fast-unfolding climate change crisis, governments can no longer remain short on actionable details to commitments that they made in Paris Climate Agreement in 2015; something that was emphasized in the FT editorial as ‘The report should fortify the resolve of global leaders to agree on a far-reaching route toward net zero emissions at November’s COP26 summit in Glasgow.’
The situation is already quite dire in terms of climate change, given unprecedented frequency and intensity of such natural phenomena as floods and wildfires, among others, as pointed out for instance in a recent Economist article ‘Where is climate change being felt most acutely?’ as ‘Climate catastrophes have come thick and fast in recent months. In June an unprecedented heatwave blasted the Pacific northwest, creating the conditions for devastating wildfires. In July extreme floods in central China killed more than 30 people. In August deadly fires have been blazing across Turkey and Greece. … Many parts of the world have also experienced much more heavy precipitation (particularly in central and eastern North America and most of Europe and Asia, as well as southern Africa); more droughts have been observed elsewhere.’
The situation calls for urgent policy action by countries, and efforts in this regard should happen immediately. Moreover, there is need for showing much greater seriousness in terms of countries coming forward with concrete plans in the upcoming COP26 meetings
According to the Report, if appropriate urgent action is not taken in terms of moving away from fossil fuel usage, for lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the world will most likely cross the desired target of global warming at 1.5°C by 2040, under one of the five scenario possibilities that it envisages. In this regard, the Report indicates ‘Under the five illustrative scenarios, in the near term (2021-2040), the 1.5°C global warming level is very likely to be exceeded under the very high GHG emissions scenario…’
A recently published Guardian article ‘Climate crisis “unequivocally” caused by human activities, says IPCC report’ pointed that there was still hope in terms of not crossing the 1.5°C global warming temperature, but on the other hand, lack of policy action would likely lead to dire consequences, and highlighted ‘…Some heating is already inevitable. We will definitely hit 1.5°C in the next two decades, whatever happens to emissions, the IPCC finds. The only good news is that keeping to that 1.5°C is not yet impossible. …Even cutting emissions, but more slowly, leads to 2°C and significantly more suffering for all life on Earth. If emissions do not fall in the next couple of decades, then 3°C of heating looks likely – a catastrophe. And if they don’t fall at all, the report says, then we are on track for 4°C to 5°C, which is apocalypse territory.’
The Report indicated that recent decades have seen a very sharp perpetuation of climate change crisis, pointing out in this regard that ‘Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850. Global surface temperature in the first two decades of the 21st century (2001-2020) was 0.99°C higher than 1850-1900. Global surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in 2011– 2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59°C) than over the ocean (0.88°C). …The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C. … Globally averaged precipitation over land has likely increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s… Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019… Global mean sea level increased by 0.20m between 1901 and 2018. The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3mm… between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9mm… between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7mm… between 2006 and 2018’.
The situation calls for urgent policy action by countries, and efforts in this regard should happen immediately. Moreover, there is a need for showing much greater seriousness in terms of countries coming forward with concrete plans in the upcoming COP26 meetings, was highlighted in a recent Guardian article ‘Major climate changes inevitable and irreversible– IPCC’s starkest warning yet’ as ‘World leaders said the stark findings must force new policy measures as a matter of urgency, to shift the global economy to a low-carbon footing. Governments from 197 countries will meet this November in Glasgow for vital UN climate talks, called Cop26. Each nation is asked to come to Cop26 with fresh plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will limit global heating to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the ambition of the Paris climate agreement and a goal the IPCC emphasised was still possible, but only just.’
