A major military conflict has infused itself in the heart of Asia. This conflict may affect neighbouring countries or the whole region. From the strategic viewpoint, the area is highly significant for both the countries. China has control of the Aksai Chen and the region east of Ladakh and wants to build a road to connect its province Xinjiang with Western Tibet. India has been objecting to China building a road in the region.
The Line of Actual Control (LAC) is a rough demarcation line which separates Chinese-controlled territory from Indian-controlled. The exact area, particularly Western Ladakh, has remained a disputed zone. Both the sides have established their claims to the territory by militarizing the zone. Both the countries have built airstrips, roads, outpost stations, telephone lines and other infrastructure. The troops of both sides conduct patrolling on their side regularly.
China claims more than 90,000 km2 in the Eastern Himalayan region and 38,000 km2 in the West Himalayas, both claims being disputed by India. The area is of a high altitude and sparsely populated, borders Tibet, the home of Buddhism and destination of tourism where the situation is hostile.
India also needs a new route to the mountainous region of Kailash to reduce travelling time and improve travel facilities for Hindu pilgrims. It was also learned that, in November 2019, a new map published by India showed these areas as part of India. Meanwhile, India repealed Article 370 of the Constitution in August, after which Kashmir and Ladakh lost their former status.
On May 23, media reported that the the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had relocated 5000 troops to the Himalayan border running along the Ladakh area of Kashmir. This is not a new development; it is the first fatal clash since 1975 and most serious since 1967. The area has always remained tense since June 2017 when Indian troops crossed the border and effectively attacked neighbouring Bhutan where Chinese roads were being built. During the hostility an Indian officer pushed and fell into the river Gorge. Then hundreds of troop from both the sides were called and fought with clubs and rocks.
If the issue persists, it would be difficult for their regional neighbours to decide which to go with where both China and India are playing on their own strength. It should be handled in a purely diplomatic way through negotiations.
It is very interesting that, India has now started such interference against Nepal. India unilaterally opened the road between Dharchola in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and Leplikh in Nepal. The road passes through the disputed Kalapani area and was inaugurated on May 8, 2020 by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. Nepal claims Lipoluk as its territory. The land belt of northwestern Nepal is connected to India and China. According to the Nepalese Foreign Ministry, after the end of the Anglo-Nepalese War, all areas east of the Mahakali River, including Lampiadhora, Kalapani and Leplikh, are part of Nepal under the 1816 Sagiuli Treaty.
Nepal has proposed India resolve the black water issue, but India did not reply. In an immediate response to the Indian action, Nepal published its new political and administrative maps of the country on 20 May 2020, showing Leplikh, Kalapani and Lampiadhora as part of Nepal. Now this controversy has also given a new dimension to cartography. On the same day, the official spokesperson of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, Anurag Srivastava, said: “The Government of Nepal released a revised official map of Nepal, which includes parts of the Indian mainland.”
The seriousness of China’s aims can be perceived from the satellite pictures, which show the significant changes it has made at Ningari Ginsa Airport, just 200 kilometers from Lake Pengong. These changes took place over a six-week period, with the airport being expanded and new hangars being opened. J-11 and J-16 fighter jets can also be seen in pictures coming in early May. In addition, on May 25, China declared that it was beginning to repatriate its citizens from India. The announcement was made under the guise of measures to combat the coronavirus, although the situation in Ladakh is a clear political reason.
Chinese troops have entered five areas of Ladakh. Four of them are along the Galwan River and the fifth is near Pengong Lake. This is the first time since the Kargil war between India and Pakistan when foreign troops have invaded disputed territory. During the Kargil war Pakistan had withdrawn its troops because of US pressure. Now the situation is more critical because Washington did not demonstrate its concern as it had done in the past. Therefore, the conflict has enormous geopolitical consequences upon the regional states and for the world as well.
China and India are the world’s two most populous states, and nuclear powers too. Both the governments are strongly nationalist and their armies are national status markers. The loss of lives during the hostility has made the situation more complicated. Both the sides are accusing each other of violation; it may be much harder to push forward to minimize escalation moves.
At the same time, both countries have domestic challenges such as the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Although China has controlled the infection, hundreds of cases have been reported recently. China’s economic relations with the USA have worsened. India also has been suffering, with almost half billion people infected, deledspite a strict lockdown. Its economy was already declining when the pandemic began. India already has bad relations with Pakistan, unsettled border tension with Nepal, an uneasy situation with Bangladesh and its Afghan strategy has fail. Thus, it cannot afford the recent hostility with China.
The material balance between China and India is totally different. In 2018, the Chinese GDP of $13600 billion was five times more than India’s of $2700 billion. Beijing spent $261.1 billion on its security in 2019, more than India’s $71.1 billion. Although India has grown as a major power and a large economy, but it has declined compared to China.
Furthermore, India has made a strategic partnership with Chinese rivals, particularly Japan and the USA. On the other hand China has strengthened its northern border with Russia. In addition, it is weakening US authority in East Asia through modernization of military and maritime capability. It is amazing that both are escalating tension on the Sino-Indian border. A miscalculation from either may lead to war.
The rising nationalism around the world and ongoing fragmentation of global trade also will be a test of the China-India relationship. China thinks that India is a big challenge to its ambitions of supremacy over Asia. China has been shaping as a regional hegemon and has also been crafting a narrative about its position in the ring of international power distribution. If the People’s Republic of China appears as a superpower in the region, then Chinese and Indian rivalry may turn into a new cold war because India is also seeking dominance in Asia. The USA is forging economic and defence relations with India. and both seem natural allies against China in Asia. On the other hand, China has been attempting to express that its real competition is with the USA, not with India. It is stated by strategic experts, “The USA no longer enjoys the same hegemonic status as it enjoyed a few decades ago”. Its position as a leader of international order is eroding gradually. Its European allies are shrinking their dependency and are revising their policy with the USA. Therefore, India will not put all eggs in one basket and it should handle all issues with China diplomatically.
However, Modi and Xi cannot afford the exceedingly complex and long-standing dispute. The clash may deteriorate their economic ties as well, as India is also a big market for Chinese products. The long-lasting clash may grow anti-Chinese sentiments in India with the call for the boycott of Chinese products. India also can restrict Chinese foreign direct investment. At the same time, China can never afford to lose its relationship with India while it is already in a trade war with the USA during the coronavirus epidemic. To avert the conflict both the sides should pursue a multifaceted strategy including summit diplomacy and the platform of regional and international institutions such as the SCO, AIIB and ADB. These institutions can play a vital role de-escalate tension and forestall border violence but cannot address their core issues.
If the issue persists, it would be difficult for their regional neighbours to decide which to go with where both China and India are playing on their own strength. It should be handled in a purely diplomatic way through negotiations.
