Iran’s new president Ibrahim Raisi seeks a diplomatic way to end the sanction regime. At his swearing-in ceremony on August 5, he stated that the crisis in the region must be resolved through intra-regional dialogue. He said, “I extend my hand of friendship and brotherhood to all the countries of the region, especially to our neighbours, and I warmly shake their hands”. A few weeks ago, Washington also advised Tehran to turn to the talks quickly on reviving a nuclear deal. In addition, if the President of Iran is genuine in his determination to see the sanctions lifted, that is precisely what’s on the table in Vienna. Washington hopes “Tehran seizes the opportunity now to advance a diplomatic solution”.
There are many reasons why analysts think that the situation is changing. First is the general course of Sino-US diplomacy. When National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met top Chinese diplomats in Anchorage in March, the tone was bitter and reproachful. On July 26, Under-secretary of State Wendy Sherman struggled to meet with her Chinese counterpart. China advised the USA to change its highly misguided mind-set and dangerous policy of thinking China was an imaginary enemy. Before her arrival Mr Wang said that China would not accept the USA’s superior position in the relationship. A few weeks later, the same senior official of China also met the Taliban leadership. China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy is crystal clear because it openly complains about the USA’s behaviour, ridicules the decline of the USA, and also expresses the view that Washington is facing the consequences of China’s violation. In broader scenarios, the Sino-US relationship is deteriorating.
The absence of collective efforts by the P5+1 to bring Iran back to the UN Security Council is another interesting reason. Russia has many differences with the Biden Administration and also has complex relations with Iran, including direct involvement in Iran’s civilian nuclear programme. However, Russian officials are clearly concerned about the possibility of Iran’s proliferation and speak of the need to limit Iran.
The Iranian leadership’s views on the nuclear talks are unclear, but there are growing indications that President Raisi and the clerics are more distrustful of the USA than ever before. Tehran is examining the decline of US influence in the region. China is allying with the Iranian resistance and pursuing a goal of gaining special blessings from Iran which will bring energy benefits for it.
Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov has played a key role in the Vienna-based nuclear talks with Iran and played the role of a messenger between Iranian and American officials. A senior US negotiator was in a closed-door meeting last week and appreciated Russia’s positive role. He described Russian willingness to adopt a “very cooperative approach”. In it, “they want to work with us to see if we can get back to the agreement.”
Another reason is the Chinese increasing its investment in the Persian Gulf, particularly in Iran. That is a clear violation of US sanctions against Iran. With a beginning in the Trump Administration and an increase under the Biden Administration, China has made clear its violation of US law. Iran desperately needed cash, meanwhile,
China has benefited from subsidized oil. As long as the nuclear talks continue, a few barrels of oil here and there can act as a negotiator. However, China imported a record amount of oil from Iran, which has increased more than 11 million barrels per day. The future of the nuclear talks is still unclear whether Iran will agree with the USA, and it is also unclear that China will agree to cut off its imports.
Although China also has serious concerns about Iran’s proliferation, it is happy to be freely involved in global efforts to stop Iran. China expresses all the feelings about its desire to resolve the dispute through negotiations, but at the same time adheres to its agreements with Iran. Both the countries are business partners and China is the only big customer of Iranian oil due to its isolation in the world.
China accounts for about a third of Iran’s trade and Iran accounts for less than one percent of China’s trade. China’s economy is 30 times larger than Iran’s and its population 18 times larger. China is an elephant and Iran is an ant. Although China does not agree with the proliferation of Iran, but it does not feel threatened by Iran. China also sees Iran as a useful tool in its foreign policy, as a way to get closer to the USAand its allies, and takes Iran as a country in its proximity. The main thing is to pull the trigger.
The Iranian leadership’s views on the nuclear talks are unclear, but there are growing indications that President Raisi and the clerics are more distrustful of the USA than ever before. Tehran is examining the decline of US influence in the region. China is allying with the Iranian resistance and pursuing a goal of gaining special blessings from Iran which will bring energy benefits for it.
