ISLAMABAD: Situation in the capital of Pakistan will be quite tense starting from March 24 and it may drag up to the first week of April.
On March 24th, the Supreme Court (SC) would take up the crucial Presidential reference on Article 63-A and then the National Assembly session has been summoned for Friday March 25th.
Thus Pakistan has one again moved into a period of constitutional and legal wrangling.
A major possibility of clashes between supporters of the government and the opposition close to the day of voting on the no confidence motion, though, was averted when the district administration denied permission to both sides to hold rallies in the Red Zone.
There is a likelihood that the parties now would be using separate venues for holding their public rallies. Supreme Court was initially approached by the Pakistan Bar Council to intervene and ensure that political parties do not hold public rallies outside the parliament house when the house is going through the proceedings of the no confidence motion.
This was necessitated as first the ruling party, PTI, announced to hold a public rally outside the parliament on March 27th and then the opposition parties responded with the announcement of their own rallies.
In the meanwhile, some PTI supporters attacked Sindh House where some of the dissenting members of the ruling party had been housed by the PPP to protect them from the government’s coercive tactics. But the government believes and claims that these members have been bought out or housed there not under their free will.
This led the Supreme Court to take up the matter on Saturday March 19th instead of March 21st and issue a short order that all proceedings of the house should be conducted according to the constitutional article 95 that deals with the no confidence motion.
While the opposition insists that Speaker National Assembly had to call a session within 14 days of receiving a requisition notice as the notice was filed on March 8th. The speaker, however, used the excuse of OIC foreign ministers conference to delay the summoning of the National Assembly.
Opposition is terming this unconstitutional. Although another article of the constitution, Article 254 does give coverage to such digressions from the constitutional deviations. In such circumstances, the opposition’s claims that the Speaker National Assembly may be charged with article 6 of the Constitution is quite fanciful.
The government has also approached the Supreme Court to seek its opinion on Article 63-A. The article lays out a procedure to de-seat a member of the parliament in case he/she votes against his parliamentary party’s directions on key issues (Election of the leader of the house, Vote of confidence and No confidence and voting on the Finance Bill).
Government is taking a position that the votes of such members cannot be counted and the Speaker should stop such members from voting. Government also is holding a position that the disqualification for such members would be for life.
But the opposing view is that such members would just lose their membership for their remaining term and that they can come back after contesting elections again. The Supreme Court has decided to form a larger bench to hear the government reference on 63-A and will hold the next hearing on March 24th.
The Advocate General for Pakistan has assured the court that parliamentary proceedings will continue without being hampered by the court proceedings. He as in much indicated that the government was not looking to stall the parliamentary procedure.
In the backdrop is the development that the ruling party is seeing the possibility of a number of dissenting members among its ranks. At least, 13-14 members have already shown intent that they would vote with the opposition in the no confidence motion. There are reports that the dissenting members’ number may swell up to two dozen or more. This is a major worry for the government.
If these members vote, PM Khan would lose the motion of no confidence. Even if they all resign as being suggested by the government party, PM Khan loses majority in the National Assembly. Though in that case, it will be the President’s call to ask him to take a vote of confidence.
Conversely, if the government is able to get some judgement from the Supreme Court that the dissenting members’ votes cannot be counted and that if they vote they stand disqualified for life then government will be in a very strong position and would survive the no confidence motion.
The other possibility of coalition partners like PML (Q), MQM-P and BAP aligning with the opposition for now. Though these parties are waiting to see the outcome of the SC judgement and which way the wind blows and are keeping their options open. They have made all kind of noises but have not committed to either side fully on their final decision.
