The outcome of the July 17 by-elections in Punjab will have far reaching consequences for both the PML(N)-led coalition and the PTI-PML(Q) alliance. In case the PML(N) manages to win the majority of seats, it will ensure the re-election of Hamza Sharif as CM Punjab on July 22 and further strengthening of the PML(N) hold on Punjab. This will be demoralize the PTI rank and file. In case the PTI wins most of the 20 seats being contested, the party would once again control the largest province of the country and freely use its economic and manpower resources to win the next general elections. This explains why Imran Khan on one side and Maryam Nawaz on the other have decided to address rallies in all the 20 constituencies in support of each other’s candidates.
Mr Khan is confident of victory despite a perception on his part that the umpire is this time supporting the other side. While continuing to appeal to the establishment not to stand by the avowedly corrupt politicians, Mr Khan has to express confidence in his victory to keep up the morale of the PTI’s rank and file. Meanwhile the PTI’s social media network has been directly accusing the ISI officials of providing help to the PML(N) candidates. To set the record straight, the ISI chief has issued a directive to intelligence officers to stay away from political activities while pledging zero tolerance for anyone found violating the orders. One wonders if this time the PTI will abstain from looking for scapegoats in case it lost the elections.
Election rules do not allow candidates to announce any new scheme for the benefit of the voters in the constituency where elections have been announced. Hamza Shehbaz has however promised free electricity for households consuming up to 100 units. While the scheme is not specific to the constituencies where elections are being held but will benefit the entire province, it would have been safer to publicize it before the elections were announced. In case the PTI loses the election it might take the issue to the courts.
