A looming debt crisis, an overall sharply and deeply depreciated currency against the US dollar over many months now, August CPI inflation at 27.3 percent at its highest level during the last four-and-a-half decades, while the pandemic continues. In addition, the country has been hit by possibly the most devastating flood in its history, mainly at the back of unprecedented levels of rainfall, and to some extent glacier melting at a higher rate, with clear climate change footprints behind both causes.
Lack of adequate infrastructural investments over the years, and inadequate natural disaster preparedness in terms of capacity, especially when a massive earthquake hit the country in 2005, and a large-scale flood in 2010, both doing immense damage to life and livelihood, leaves a lot to be desired in terms of institutional, and organizational reform, and prioritizing investments in this direction. A recent Bloomberg published article ‘Pakistan could have averted its climate catastrophe’ pointed out in this regard ‘Some of the most important lines of defence against floods are colonial-era projects such as the vast Sukkur Barrage– a system of dams and canals that divert the waters of the Indus to irrigate the arid southern Sindh Province. Many are in a poor state of repair, thanks to years of underinvestment in maintenance; corruption; and disputes between Pakistan’s four provinces about the allocation of water and funds. The Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs on either side of Islamabad have become so choked with silt sweeping down from the Himalayas that they’re losing their ability to swallow up floodwaters and prevent inundation further downstream. …The underinvestment that has led to this state of affairs is chronic. Among the world’s top 20 economies by population, only Egypt has a lower rate of gross capital formation than Pakistan– a sign of a country that’s unable to build the infrastructure it needs to support a growing population.’
It also shows a lack of provision of climate finance from rich, advanced countries over the years, when clearly the climate change footprint has been becoming all the more visible in the country, towards which it has little contribution, while most of the global warming has come from rich, advanced countries.
With more than 1300 people killed by the floods, where around one-third have been children, life and livelihood have been severely affected. An article ‘Pakistan has been hit by its worst floods in recent memory’ published in The Economist recently highlighted the scale of devastation: ‘One-third of the country is underwater; the government has declared 72 out of 160 districts to be disaster zones. … The volume of rainfall is staggering. Some 700mm (28 inches) have been dumped on the south-eastern province of Sindh, nearly six times the 30-year annual average. Balochistan, a vast, arid province normally untouched by the monsoon, has received five times its annual average.’
Moreover, the severe impact of floods could also be gauged in terms of likely economic output lost to the country, whereby while an economic growth rate for the current fiscal year was earlier projected at around five percent, which is reportedly likely to fall by three percent. A recent Bloomberg article ‘Pakistan’s floods may reveal China as a fair-weather friend’ indicated in this regard ‘the heaviest rains in decades have caused more than 1,300 deaths (the number is expected to rise sharply) and upended the lives of more than 30 million. Economic growth forecasts have been cut by more than half, to 2.3 percent; with rice and cotton crops ruined, even that is looking optimistic.’
In the midst of all this catastrophe, the visit of United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, to Pakistan, has indeed been very timely and important, especially his comments in a joint press conference with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, where he not only made a call from rich countries to both provide meaningful financial support to the country, but also indicated that it was a matter of ‘justice’ to support the country through meaningful debt relief, given global warming was mainly being caused by rich, advanced countries, while Pakistan contributed minimally towards climate change and global warming. He indicated in this regard ‘…I want to say a few words to the international community. Pakistan needs massive financial support to respond to this crisis that have cost, according to some estimates I’ve heard today, about $30 billion, and counting. And debt support is entirely necessary, and it is not a matter of solidarity, it’s a matter of justice. Pakistan has not contributed in a meaningful way to climate change. The level of emissions of this country is relatively low, but Pakistan is one of the most dramatically impacted countries by climate change… it is absolutely essential that this is recognized by the international community, especially by those that have more contributed to climate change, and that effective solidarity, effective justice is now shown by mobilizing massive support for relief, for rehabilitation… after these devastating impacts of the monsoon, plus the accelerated melting of the glaciers…’
The visit of United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, to Pakistan, has indeed been very timely and important, especially his comments in a joint press conference with the Prime Minister of Pakistan, where he not only made a call from rich countries to both provide meaningful financial support to the country, but also indicated that it was a matter of ‘justice’ to support the country through meaningful debt relief, given global warming was mainly being caused by rich, advanced countries, while Pakistan contributed minimally towards climate change and global warming.
Unfortunately, while it has been a number of weeks since the floods hit, yet international support up till now has been quite lukewarm. A September 10, Bloomberg published article ‘UN Chief asks World for ‘massive’ help in flood-hit Pakistan’ highlighted some of the international support numbers and actions that fall extremely lower than the billions of US dollars, and the extent of action needed, for the flood relief/rehabilitation effort. The article pointed out in this regard ‘Planeloads of aid from the United States, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have begun arriving, but Guterres said there’s more to be done. … The U.N. chief’s trip comes less than two weeks after Guterres appealed for $160 million in emergency funding to help those affected by the monsoon rains and floods… On Friday, the first planeload arrived from the USA, which Washington says is part of an upcoming $30 million in assistance. … USAID announced an additional $20 million Friday in humanitarian assistance for Pakistan, further enhancing U.S. pledges. Later, Guterres directed his words at the international community, saying that by some estimates, Pakistan needs about $30 billion to recover from the floods.’
In addition to loss and injury to life, agriculture, and livestock, the mainstay of people’s livelihoods in most of the flood affected areas, not to mention the damage done to roads, railroads, bridges, hospitals, homes, and schools, among other infrastructure, has been immense. A recent ‘Al Jazeera’ published article ‘After record floods, now Pakistan has to worry about economy’ indicated in this regard ‘More than 1,300 people have so far died, with 81 out of 160 districts in the country directly affected by the floods, leaving at least 33 million people homeless, figures which are expected to rise in the coming days. But beyond the human losses, the country’s economic managers have the most challenging task ahead as floods ravaged the country’s road and communication network, damaged an incalculable number of houses, and destroyed millions of hectares of crops. … The agriculture sector makes up nearly a fourth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product at 22.7 percent. … As per a UN Food and Agriculture Organization August 29 report, almost 80 percent of crops in Sindh, which produces roughly 30 percent of Pakistan’s total cotton output, were destroyed. Close to 70 percent of Pakistan’s textile industry, an important source of employment and foreign exchange, uses the cotton produced in the country. Since nearly 35 percent of that is produced in Sindh province… the sector is girding itself for a shortage…’
