Melting state of Pakistan and Indian general elections 2024

Is Pakistan to be written off?

A Letter from Prometheus

India is not too far from its general elections in 2024 and the ruling BJP is setting its agenda for campaigning. Whosoever is following BJP and Congress campaigning can well understand that Rahul Gandhi’s “Bharat Jodo Yatra” (connecting India by traveling) has changed the political balance and now Congress would again be a reality in the forthcoming general elections.

Indian political commentators claim that neither anti-Muslim nor anti-Pakistan ingredients would be foremost in a recipe of the BJP election campaign, because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi believes that socially crumbling Pakistan has no importance for India. Is Pakistan socially crumbling or is it economically in the Intensive Care Unit? These are debatable points, but this is what the Indian leadership is thinking about Pakistan.

A political commentary and analysis published by the United States Institute of Peace on February 8, indicates that India may not have any serious issues with Pakistan before its general elections. It mentions that the last major crisis between India and Pakistan was in 2019 with the Pulwama attacks and since February 2021, the border with Pakistan has been unusually quiet with a cease-fire in place that has led to a notable reduction in cross-border firings and cease-fire violations. The report says that India and Pakistan are both headed into election years— with general elections anticipated in Pakistan this year and India’s in 2024. This may add pressure on the Indian leadership to show resolve if there is another crisis.

The Indian media, while focusing on the political situation in Pakistan, highlights the anti-establishment narrative of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and notes that Khan is allowed to question the military establishment, but that privilege was not granted to any other politician of the country. When former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, while addressing his workers in Gujranwala, claimed that former COAS Gen Qamar Bajwa and former ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed were meddling with politics, he was banned from the television screens and he was tagged as a traitor and a stooge of India. Now the same allegations are raised by former PM Imran Khan against General Bajwa but Khan is allowed to say whatever he wishes to say.

Meanwhile, former Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) federal minister Shireen Mazari claimed that General Bajwa wanted to resettle members of the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and their families following the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. She indicated that this was the time when General Faiz was chief of the ISI, and he was also sitting in the meeting when Bajwa discussed this issue with Imran. Her remarks came when people were blaming her party for inviting terrorists back to Pakistan from Afghanistan and now she is shifting the burden to army leadership. It may be remembered that TTP top leader and spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan managed to escape from military custody in February 2020 when the PTI was in power and neither the military with whom he was confined nor the then government had ever shared details of his historic escape. A series of his letters published by the UK-based newspaper Guardian raised several questions but nobody ever answered his blames and claims.

The PTI-Military conflict has gone to the next level where Imran has demanded President Arif Alvi order an inquiry against the former Bajwa on charges of allegedly violating his oath by interfering in politics and controlling the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). This is the same allegation Mian Nawaz Sharif put on the former Army leadership and then Mian Nawaz faced wrath in the 2018 elections.

In a letter written to the President on February 14, Imran Khan requested President Alvi who is also the Supreme Commander of the Pakistan Armed Forces to open an inquiry against the former COAS for admitting that he (General Bajwa) considered Imran Khan ‘dangerous for the country’ and recorded tapes of his confidential conversations.

The public is asking what salaries, packages, and even pensions military officials, the judges of the superior judiciary, and bureaucrats are receiving from the public exchequer, for not allowing people to know their tax returns. There are two options available to people in power, one is to open up and share their accounts with the public and the second option is to use more power to snub them for asking such questions.  Both are applicable but both would bring results that may not be in their favour.

Indian politicians, as well as senior journalists and writers, are of the view that Pakistan’s situation is worsening day by day and putting Pakistan as a “campaign ingredient” would actually be giving importance to Pakistan that it does not deserve today. Meanwhile, they indirectly suggest blaming Pakistan for fanning terrorism in the region would benefit India to portray Pakistan as a dangerous country that is becoming more dangerous after its administrative and economic meltdown.

Honestly speaking there is no doubt that Pakistan is melting in the same pot it crafted in the early 1980s for melting its enemies or for earning petro-dollars for people in power. History is ruthless and after almost 40-plus years everybody, irrespective of the political divide, is raising fingers toward a military establishment and blaming it for the social, political, and economic disasters Pakistan is facing today. On one hand, the PTI demanding an inquiry against the former chief of the Pakistan Army while on the other, Pakistan Muslim League (N) senior vice president Maryam Nawaz is claiming that ‘remnants’ of former ISI chief General Faiz Hameed were still present in the establishment and supporting Imran. She is also questioning the judiciary and safely but surely dragging the judiciary into whatever benefits Imran Khan is getting in courts.

In an informal conversation with reporters in Lahore, she called upon the judiciary to “hold some individuals accountable” following the emergence of alleged audio leaks of a Supreme Court Judge with former Chief Minister Punjab Ch. Pervaiz Elahi. She claimed that no one had been given as much leniency as Imran Khan wa) being given by the judiciary. “Despite being caught red-handed; no action is being taken against him. There is no greater injustice than the double standards of justice,” she remarked.

On the other hand, skyrocketing price hikes and diminishing economic opportunities are compelling the cowardly and powerless common man to raise questions about the economic cost he is paying for having a military establishment, judiciary, Parliament, and bureaucracy. There is a perceivable difference that I observe, which is that only politicians and Parliament were under corruption charges in yesteryear, but now the public is openly extending the spectrum and other state institutions are in focus.

Moreover, the public is asking what salaries, packages, and even pensions military officials, the judges of the superior judiciary, and bureaucrats are receiving from the public exchequer, for not allowing people to know their tax returns. There are two options available to people in power, one is to open up and share their accounts with the public and the second option is to use more power to snub them for asking such questions.  Both are applicable but both would bring results that may not be in their favour.

Agha Iqrar Haroon
Agha Iqrar Haroon
The writer is an international award winning journalist who has been in the field since 1988 and appears in national and international media as analyst and political scientist.

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