In an unprecedented and belligerent move, India issued a notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, seeking modifications to the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in September 1960, that governs the utilisation of the waters of the Indus system of rivers by Pakistan and India. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) — the lending arm of the World Bank Group — that brokered this treaty is also a signatory to the treaty. The aforementioned notice was issued just two days before the hearing of a dispute at the request of Pakistan by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power projects being constructed by India in the occupied Kashmir. India boycotted the Court of Arbitration’s proceedings and gave a 90 days’ notice to Pakistan, reportedly insisting on solving the matter bilaterally without involving any third party. India’s unilateral notice sends a message to Pakistan that it does not consider IWT inviolable and if Pakistan does not want to put the treaty at risk, it must go along with the Indian projects.
Earlier in August 2016, Pakistan had initiated legal proceedings against the aforementioned projects, by requesting the constitution of an ad hoc Court of Arbitration citing Article IX of the IWT. Pakistan was obliged to do so as India was persistently refusing to address Pakistan’s concerns. In response to Pakistan’s invocation of an ad hoc Court of Arbitration, India belatedly requested the appointment of a Neutral Expert. In October 2017, following its responsibilities under the Indus Waters Treaty, the World Bank made the appointments in the two separate processes requested by India and Pakistan concerning the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power plants. As such two parallel processes were initiated; Mr. Michel Lino was appointed as the Neutral Expert and Prof. Sean Murphy was designated as the Chairman of the Court of Arbitration.
The Indus River has been a cradle of civilisation and has been used for irrigation since time immemorial. The British had constructed a complex canal system for enhancing agricultural output. The partition left a large part of this infrastructure in Pakistan but the headwork dams remained in India. It is against this background that the World Bank brokered the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan after many years of intense negotiations, and settled the issue of the allocation of waters of the Indus River basin. According to the IWT, control over the waters of the three “eastern” rivers — the Beas, the Ravi, and the Sutlej — was given to India, while control over the three “western” rivers — the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum — to Pakistan.
The Indus River has been a cradle of civilisation and has been used for irrigation since time immemorial. The British had constructed a complex canal system for enhancing agricultural output.
Since the ratification of the treaty in 1960, the IWT has survived wars and periods of intense tension between the two countries. However, India, being the upper riparian state, has a long history of taking advantage of that position and has misused the treaty provisions to the disadvantage of Pakistan, be it the Salal dam, Tulbul Navigation project, the Baglihar dam, Nimmo Bazgo hydroelectric project or the currently disputed designs of Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects. India is using water as a weapon of coercion as 78 percent of Pakistan’s river water inflows from India.
Pakistan is faced with looming water scarcity. According to a recent report published by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), the country ranks 14 among the 17 “extremely high water risk” countries of the world. There is a serious risk that the country may face “water scarcity” by 2025. Water scarcity can become an existential threat to energy and food security, and therefore, to national security.
Campaigning in Haryana in 2019, Modi threatened Pakistan by saying, “The water which belongs to India was allowed to flow to Pakistan for 70 years…this will not happen now. We will divert the water which belongs to India, it will be given to the farmers of Haryana, and water should be given to the farmers of Rajasthan.” A senior leader of the ruling BJP party, Priya Sethi, has called for building electricity dams and irrigation channels “to ensure the water flow into Pakistan is stopped”. Joanna Slater, a staff writer for the Washington Post, asserts, “India wants to use water as a weapon against Pakistan.”
Growing water scarcity has become an issue of national security, requiring the urgent attention of policymakers at the highest level. A national road map for water security is needed that may follow two parallel tracks; one dealing with all aspects of water conservation, storage, and modernisation of the irrigation system, and the other remaining resolute vis-a-vis India on the IWT. There is perhaps a need to upgrade the capacity of Pakistan’s Indus Water Commission, by providing them with the services of leading legal and technical experts. The Indus Water Treaty has regulated the waters of the Indus basin for sixty years. Pakistan should make sure that India is not allowed to breach this treaty. International pressure should be brought to bear on India to respect IWT in the letter and spirit.
