AT PENPOINT
BRICS may well have become unmanageable. By a happy coincidence, the first letters of the names of the members (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) not only could be combined, but combined into a word with an appropriate meaning. With the new admissions, it does not seem that any acronym will emerge, let alone an appropriate one.
At the same time, the organization has certainly changes direction, while some would say it has even lost it. Originally, BRICS was a sort of gathering of countries which were expected to be the emerging powers of the new 21st century.
When it was formed in 2009, it was BRIC, and South Africa only joined a year later. The acronym was first used in 2001, as BRIC or BRICS, as those countries which deserved watching got the 21st century.
It is an economic grouping, and all the original members are also members of the G20. Russia was once admitted to the G7, which then became the G8, joining in 1998, but had its membership suspended after it annexed Crimea in 2014, leaving finally in 2018. The G7 is a grouping of the USA and its closest allies, comprising Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the USA. The European Union is an ‘non-enumerated member’, represented at Summits by the EU Council President. It is worth noting that France, Germany, Italy and the UK thus have double representation because of this.
The G& was founded as a grouping of the seven largest economies of the world, back in the 1970s, but the rise of China has made it slightly less powerful than before. The G20, which began joining the G7 after 1999, consists of the G7 members plus Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Türkiye. It will thus be noted that the original BRICS members are part of the G20 already.
While China is eminently qualified for inclusion in the G7, being a large economy, it does not share the same commitment to Western democracy and European values. Perhaps more important, it is not a US ally. There are a large number of economic issues on which it cooperates with the USA, but politically it has become a rival.
The BRICS expansion more than doubles the membership of the organization, going from five to 11. Though it has been confidently said by Chinese President Xi Jinping that the foreign ministers have worked out the criteria by which expansion is to be conducted, the process has not been clear. At the same time, it is worth noting that of the new members (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia), two are already G20 members.
China may well be the coming superpower, but is it over-extending itself? And that too in an organization that has India as a member. Will China be the USSR of the new Cold War with India, or the USA? It should not be forgotten that even has-beens can pack a punch.Â
While it may be an ego boost for such a country as Ethiopia to be included, it does seem that the organization is no longer one of emerging powers. There were about two dozen applications, but only six were accepted. It is interesting that Indonesia was among those countries whose applications were not accepted, even though its population and oil wealth both make it a surprise omission from the G20.
Bangladesh was also an applicant, but was apparently not included. Pakistan was not an applicant. It is also worth noting that Nigeria is more populous, and is an oil power. Vice-President Kashim Shettima, who was in Johannesburg for the Summit, said that Nigeria had not yet applied.
The new configuration makes oil very important. Saudi Arabia, Iran and the UAE are major oil producers, along with original members Russia, China and India (thoufgh the latter two are net importers, their domestic production is considerable). The omission of Indonesia is therefore of great interest.
The inclusion of Egypt begs the question why not Pakistan. After all, not only are both Muslim countries dominated by an exotic river, but the military has great political influence (one is under military rule, the other is experiencing another ‘hybrid regime’), and each has got a problem with a US ally. For one, Pakistan did not apply. For another, none of the original members objected to Egypt. India was there to object to Pakistan, if it indeed had applied.
South Africa was there to push for Egypt’s inclusion, as it did Ethiopia’s. Ethiopia is growing at five percent, which makes it one of the most dynamic economies in Africa, but it is still a developing economy. As a matter of fact, none of the BRICS countries is really a developed country, not even Russia.
So is BRICS going to turn into another club of developing nations, like the Group of 77? It could, but Western countries are more worried that it might become a sort of pro-China and pro-Russia club. The BRICS countries perhaps could have been accommodated, because the West has seen a multipolar world before. It has seen the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium all stake a claim to being powers, but not necessarily Great Powers. Formerly undisputed Great Powers, like the UK, France, Italy and Germany saw themselves fall back after World War II, when the world became bipolar.
A multipolar world sees lesser powers competed for by larger. The aim is not necessarily very purposeful, and may simply amount to the need to be consulted, just as Italian dictator Benito Mossolini was invited to Munich even though he had no role or stake in the German-Czechoslovakian problem.
At the moment, it seems, BRICS membership seems to be about supporting China and Russia, which is presently given great importance because of its invasion of Ukraine. That could explain Iran’s presence. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE are supposed to be US allies, so why would they want to be on board? Saudi Arabia and the UAE clearly want to get out of the US camp. Clearly, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman does not see the USA as providing sufficient guarantees for his succession. He is gathering support, it seems, for joining BRICS is accompanied by more noises of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel.
It might escape the notice of many, but when the UN was originally established, it grew out of the Atlantic Charter, which was actually merely the World War II alliance of the USA, the UK, the USSR, China and France. These were also the five veto powers in the new organization. As the seven decades since have shown, the veto has been exerted either to save an ally, or even oneself, from any action.
At the time, in a bipolar world, the UN served as an arena for the USA and the USSR to fight. But in a unipolar world, the UN became more or less an instrument of the USA’s will (Think about the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan). Rather than mount an attack to capture the UN, is China thinking of setting up a different organization? Will BRICS remain a platform for would-be powers, or will it be open to countries with no ambitions, like Kiribati or Tuvalu? Is a BRICS member to be like China, wishing to challenge the USA, or like Ethiopia?
BRICS is an economic organisation, and one of its purposes is to break the monopoly of the US dollar, especially over world trade, particularly over oil. Though much has yet to be developed, there are two events which have already occurred. First, BRICS has set up an international development bank, like the USA’s World Bank or Asian Development Bank. It is to be seen how it complements China’s own Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (which has scheduled its annual meeting next month in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt). Second, Pakistan paid Russia for its oil imports in Chinese yuan. And Pakistan isn’t even in BRICS.
China may well be the coming superpower, but is it over-extending itself? And that too in an organization that has India as a member. Will China be the USSR of the new Cold War with India, or the USA? It should not be forgotten that even has been can pack a punch.
