The Iran nuclear deal, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5 + 1 countries (China, France, US, Russia, UK, and Germany), to curb Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for billions of dollars of sanctions relief. It was the most highly restrictive non-proliferation accord ever reached. The agreement required Iran to limit the enrichment of uranium, shut down the Arak reactor, and allow a committee to monitor activities and nuclear facilities constantly.
In January 2016, when the agreement was implemented, Iran allowed the IAEA to monitor and inspect nuclear facilities, eliminated 98 percent of its uranium stockpile, filled the Arak reactor with cement to block the production of weapons-grade plutonium, and provided the IAEA with the necessary information to assess Iran’s nuclear past.
Iran met the terms successfully during the Obama Administration, as mentioned in the JCPOA document. It complied with all the steps required to block the pathways of developing a nuclear weapon. A noteworthy accomplishment of the JCPOA was extending Iran’s breakout period (the time required to produce a nuclear weapon) to one year. This served as an assurance that before Iran could obtain materials for a nuclear bomb, the international community would have an ample and prolonged opportunity to respond diplomatically.
The evidence of Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA terms is flawless, but on the other hand, Trump decided to violate the agreement. On 8 May 2018, US President Donald Trump declared his decision to withdraw from the JCPOA a week before the deadline. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, 2015 mandates the sitting president to review and suspend several sanctions every 120 to 180 days in order to maintain the nuclear agreement, which did not happen. President Donald Trump instigated heavy economic sanctions on Iran following the USA’s withdrawal. On the contrary, Iran intensified its nuclear programme; it began developing centrifuges for uranium enrichment, with weapons-grade purity standing at 90 percent, a significantly higher and more dangerous level.
On the US’s withdrawal, Tamir Pardo, Former Director of Mossad, stated, “What happened in 2018 was a tragedy. It was an unforgivable strategy, the fact that Israel pushed the United States to withdraw from the agreement ten years early. It was a strategic mistake.”
Pakistan has taken an upright stance over the USA violating the Iran nuclear deal, that international agreements must be valued. Being a close ally to the US and Iran, Pakistan stated it would not be drawn into the rivalry and volunteered to work as a broker between the two parties.
Now, the breakout time is predicted to be nearly one month, and since Iran has moved much closer to a nuclear weapon, it will have severe implications for the region and the whole world (especially for the USA and Israel). Pakistan, a close neighbour of Iran, has strong trade and economic relations. Despite many political and ideological differences, Pakistan and Iran have made huge efforts to bolster economic cooperation and strengthen friendly relations. However, Iran’s nuclear programme will bring severe consequences for the country.
Pakistan is currently dealing with huge security problems. The non-state actors residing in Balochistan, FATA, North Waziristan, and Pakistan constantly target different ethnic groups. Despite many efforts, the government of Pakistan faces criticism as to why the problem persists. Iran’s nuclear programme may shift the focus of Pakistan from the militant groups to the strategic stability of South Asia.
Secondly, the ‘maximum pressure‘ strategy of the USA, which includes sanctions on Iran, could affect the energy needs of Pakistan, as the country relies deeply on other states for oil and gas. The recent efforts of Islamabad to revive the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project would be badly affected if the sanctions are not lifted, as Pakistan is already dealing with a devastated economy.
Thirdly, since Iran has intensified its nuclear programme by producing more and more uranium, the non-state actors residing in Iran could become a major threat to Pakistan. If the fissile material falls into hostile groups’ hands, they may use it against Pakistan. It will certainly compromise the security and, hence, the existence and survival of Pakistan.
Pakistan has taken an upright stance over the USA violating the Iran nuclear deal, that international agreements must be valued. Being a close ally to the US and Iran, Pakistan stated it would not be drawn into the rivalry and volunteered to work as a broker between the two parties. If it violates any agreement, the USA, being a global hegemon, would set an example for other states- as it did in the past by giving an NSG waiver to India. If the issue prevails, it may take other forms, and in the meantime, Pakistan may need to revive its nuclear strategy. By mutual efforts, the USA, along with its allies, should reinitiate the accord, ensuring compliance of all the parties to the principles of the agreement. Diplomacy can work again as it did before.
