The year 2023 can be safely categorized as an action-packed year for Pakistan. The bewildered nation is witness to developments which were never experienced before. The Friday decision by the Supreme Court has literally created a level playing field for all the players, which was done away with after the vote of no-confidence which took shape on 9 April 2022. The current development puts into question the invisible hands’ machinations and creates a valid case for the students of political science and political analysts, and the need to question these ‘hybrid’ models.
As a matter of fact, the thrust of the new hybrid se- up in place since 10 April 2022, and which continued even after the takeover of the caretaker/technocrat government and the change of command in Rawalpindi has been given a jolt by the above-mentioned decision on opening of NAB cases regards PDM leadership. It goes without saying that the whole thing set up for punishing a former partner was an exercise in futility. The beneficiaries of the vote of no-confidence seem to be stuck up at the same point where they were in the wee hours of 10 April 2022.
With the terminal patient again put on the ventilator courtesy a meek constitution, coupled with another hybrid, a dose from the IMF and investment programmes, the much-needed Magna Carta seems to be again lost in the crowd for good. The failure of the important component of the state, the Pakistani masses, to take the matter into their hands in the fashion of Philippines in 1986 or Iran of 1979, suggests that powers will not have any difficulty in managing the show for another five years or so, until new contradictions surface between the betrothed in the hybrid marriage. The country will again be at the door of another tunnel when the monkey and cat circus expected to kick off in 2024 ends in 2029. For Pakistanis regretfully, it is yet another season of “game of thrones” with all the graphic details!
Even though the situation is more fluid than ever, the question does arise, as to why a small elite has been calling the shots without taking into consideration the aspirations of the most important component of the state; the masses; whose will is formalized via the electoral process. That elite is composed of the men in uniform, big businesses and political bigwigs, among others. The current situation does raise a question as to why palace coups are still the trend; given the fact that the last ‘coup’ had a devastating impact on economy and polity.
Taking the debate into an academic mode, the structure of a modern nation state after the rise of the industrial economy and society has been designed as such that even though the elite traditionally calls the shots; any rationale for the nation-state cannot have a stable foothold, unless it catches the imagination of the most important unit of a state; namely its populace.
Pakistan has passed seven decades experimenting with sporadic spells of constitutional rule, frequent interventions or quasi-interventions and now a ‘hybrid’ without any scruples. The people of Pakistan seem to have accustomed themselves to the realities and have adjusted their practical approach to live in such a nation-state. The biggest impediment to the rule of law seems to be the reality that it is the show of naked power, which decides the acceptability of any group, institution or a political trend in Pakistan. The rationale of a population agreeing with a political idea is secondary. That population is generally treated, especially by the extra constitutional set-ups, as a ‘supportive silent majority’. The idea of a silent majority is never quantified by the order, which takes advantage of the ‘silence’. It is only for the politicians to point out, if they are courageous or for the journalists to wonder.
The late PPP chairperson, Benazir Bhutto, in her inaugural speech as PM on the night of 2 December 1988, found the opportunity to argue that the younger generation’s fascination to take power AK-47 in hand is triggered by the fact that when they see institutions with arms dictating to the society. Likewise, Owen Bennet Jones of BBC was at loss in Islamabad on the morning of 13 October 1999, the day after the Musharraf coup on the back of the Kargil fiasco, that no one was protesting the coup. The respected correspondent was ata loss, precisely on one count; he could not understand that the ‘silent majority’ was in fact a ‘hibernating majority’ cut off from the affairs of the state in any aggressive sense of the word.
As said earlier, the developing argument will help us to locate the end of the tunnel; a non-participative important section of public in fact helps any clever player to manipulate the political tools, media manipulation and any other armoury in the ‘filthy’ business of political manipulation to get to the business of controlling the state structure and its priorities. The transformation of a federation which was to allow a degree of independence to federating units into a one-unit way back in the early years was instrumental in shedding away any chances of developing the Pakistani state as a welfare-driven state. What turned out in the seven decades and now seems to be consolidated with time; unless the ‘people disagree’, is the national security state profile of Pakistan.
Here one needs to understand that despite the numbness of the hibernating mass of people, trying to adjust to the inflationary pressure, which is driven by the mismanagement of the elite, political players are alert to the developing scenario. These individuals, despite being part of the elite, feel that the pressure cooker of even silent discontent, if allowed indefinitely over the stove, can explode with collateral damage. The public disagreement within the leadership of a major political party over the timing of the elections illustrates these concerns. The younger generation sees the need to end the stalemate, even if the end is superficial in nature. The old guard, whether in this party or that party, seems to treat the ground realties as dead factors, which may not disturb their political calculations. Consequently, they do not see any harm in siding with the controlling authorities over the future road map of the country’s polity, geostrategy, economy, and more.
Given the fact that the elite is not interested in the cure of the ailment in a genuine manner, only interested in the proverbial chemotherapy to satisfy the international opinion abroad and the local public in house. Its opposition to the genuineness of the cure rests in the fact that if allowed, it would eliminate its existence for good. Considering the current situation where all the political groups, in the limelight or in the wilderness, are united on one point; that they are cats looking for their share of cheese, to be distributed by the proverbial monkey; regretfully, the doomsday scenario going forward on some later date cannot be avoided.
The continuation of the system squarely means that under the superficial umbrella of the 1973 Constitution, the character of the state in question is likely to follow the beaten track; a wolf in sheep’s clothing; with the ‘national security state’ tag. As things are developing between the new ‘selected’ and the established order; and consequently, the objections from the other proverbial cats are being observed. Despite an aura of hope being weaved for the country after the elections, it is just going to be a whitewash coupled with few cosmetic steps taken now and the rest implemented when the ‘new selected’ will be formally on the throne with power behind the throne remotely monitoring the situation.
What might be observed in the coming days can be a quasi-partnership already witnessed during the 2018-2022 era. The mechanics of internal politics, the geo political scene and other factors might not change but the faces. Alternatively, it can be said, old wine in new bottles.
With the terminal patient again put on the ventilator courtesy a meek constitution, coupled with another hybrid, a dose from the IMF and investment programmes, the much-needed Magna Carta seems to be again lost in the crowd for good. The failure of the important component of the state, the Pakistani masses, to take the matter into their hands in the fashion of Philippines in 1986 or Iran of 1979, suggests that powers will not have any difficulty in managing the show for another five years or so, until new contradictions surface between the betrothed in the hybrid marriage. The country will again be at the door of another tunnel when the monkey and cat circus expected to kick off in 2024 ends in 2029. For Pakistanis regretfully, it is yet another season of “game of thrones” with all the graphic details!
