With general elections scheduled in 2024, India is once again headed towards a pivotal moment that will not only shape the political landscape of the nation, but also determine her diplomatic posture internationally. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is actively strategizing to secure a consecutive third term, leaving no stone unturned in its quest for electoral victory. Drawing from past election tactics, such as the controversial Pulwama attack, which was seen by critics as a calculated political maneuver, the BJP may employ similar strategies to sway the electoral tide in their favor.
As the BJP intensifies its efforts to maintain its grip on power, it has initiated a series of measures, including expediting the delimitation act. This act aims to redistribute parliamentary seats in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, serving as a potential tool for the BJP to gain an electoral advantage in the upcoming elections. By strategically manipulating seat distribution, the party aims to bolster its chances of securing a favorable outcome at the polls.
The state elections scheduled for November 2023 assume paramount importance in this milieu, as they offer a pivotal glimpse into the current political landscape. Several key states, such as Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan, and Telangana, will serve as crucial battlegrounds for political parties vying for power. These elections will provide invaluable insights into the prevailing political dynamics and serve as a litmus test for the popularity and support enjoyed by the competing parties.
In the state of Madhya Pradesh, the Congress and BJP had secured similar vote shares in the 2018 elections. However, despite the Congress winning a slightly higher number of seats, their government’s tenure was short-lived. The defection of 22 Congress MLAs to the BJP resulted in the BJP’s return to power. This episode underscores the volatility and fluidity of state-level politics, where unexpected shifts in allegiance can dramatically shape electoral outcomes.
Chhattisgarh is witnessing a closely contested battle between the Congress and BJP. Recent surveys indicate a slight edge for the Congress in terms of vote share, with the popular incumbent Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel bolstering the party’s advantage.
Telangana, on the other hand, is expected to witness a neck-and-neck contest between the BJP and Congress. Both parties are projected to secure between 50 and 60 seats in the 119-member Assembly. Meanwhile, the Mizoram elections, slated for November 2023, may result in a hung verdict, necessitating the support of the Zoram People’s
Amongst the five states undergoing elections in November 2023, only Rajasthan’s pre-vote projection results favor BJP.
While state elections offer valuable insights into the prevailing political landscape, it is essential to note that their outcomes may not necessarily mirror those of the general elections. Assembly results often diverge from national election outcomes due to intricate local factors and specific regional dynamics at play. One notable aspect of the political landscape is the BJP’s concerted efforts to expand its influence in the Southern states of India, where BJP has little presence.
With a more liberal mind-set in India’s south and the region’s outperformance compared to their Northern counterparts in socio-economic indicators, law and order, per capita income, taxation systems, literacy rates and population control, the BJP’s Hindutva ideology faces significant resistance in these states. Political parties representing the Southern states, such as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh have been able to successfully counter the BJP’s Hindu nationalist wave that swept the north.
The BJP’s pursuit of her fascist agenda through initiatives like the “India to Bharat” campaign and the proposal for “One Nation – One Election,” serve as important political tools to appeal the right wing nationalist Hindus that form the majority in India. These measures, if implemented, could potentially tilt seat distribution in favor of the BJP, particularly in the Northern states. Such concerns have raised alarm bells regarding the erosion of democratic principles and the emergence of a potential North-South divide.
Beyond domestic challenges, the BJP government is faced with international embarrassment at this critical time, particularly with elections in sight. The case of eight former Indian Navy officials sentenced to death in Qatar for espionage and Modi government’s failure to secure a diplomatic resolution for the exchange of the convicted veterans, for instance, has raised questions about Modi’s claims of India’s diplomatic prowess and its standing as a so called ‘significant player’ in international affairs.
With India’s current projection of political landscape for 2024 general elections and BJP’s ardent pursuit of a third consecutive term in the face of challenges rooted in the party’s failures at domestic as well as international fronts, it is much likely for Modi’s time tested fascist tactics emulating the Pulwama style false flag operation to come into play to gain political mileage. It is imperative to note that Modi’s godi media has already started mirroring the BJP’s narrative with the increment of anti-Pakistan reporting, especially in line with the BJP’s classic disproven accusation of ‘terrorism from Pakistani side’.
