In recent attacks on southern Israel, Russian President Putin blamed the USA for all this but didn’t condemn the attack on Israel. He contacted Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and offered help to neutralize the situation in the Gaza Strip. In addition, the Russian President also discussed this matter with Egypt, Iran, and Syria and authorities of Hamas. But this attack on Israel is a present for Russia as Russia is embroiled in the Ukraine war so it is better for Russia that the Western world’s attention may be diverted from that war to another side.
Could this crisis in the Middle East be beneficial for Russia? Is Russia directly involved in all this? And how can Russia use this entire situation to its advantage?
Russia has close ties to Iran and Iran and Hamas have common interests, thus in a sense, at least to some extent, Russia and Hamas have common interests. But it also doesn’t mean that Russia was directly involved in or had prior knowledge of the Hamas attack on Israel.
Israel’s ambassador in Moscow said in an interview that they did not believe that Russia was involved in this incident in any way, adding further that it was complete nonsense to say that the attack by Hamas on Israel had something to do with Russia.
It is also true that Russia has never declared Hamas a terrorist organization, and has long adopted a pro-Palestine stance diplomatically. Putin first invited Hamas leaders to Moscow in 2006, and a Hamas delegation has been visiting Moscow ever since. However, there is no evidence of direct Russian arms supplies to Hamas or Russian military training of Hamas operatives. That is, we can say that President Putin did not start this war in the Middle East, but he can certainly benefit from it.
One of the most important goals of Russian foreign policy at the moment is to divert the world’s attention from the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The Middle East is at the top of the international news agenda these days due to its recent situation. Some time ago, while the news regarding the Russian-Ukraine war was the adornment of the world media, now everywhere the war between Israel and Hamas and the Palestinian issue are being discussed. Global media coverage of news and commentary helps in building public opinion to a large extent.
Therefore, after the war between Hamas and Israel, the attention of the international media, think tank commentators, and the general public has shifted away from the Russian-Ukraine conflict, which may benefit Russia to some extent. American think tanks also believe that Russia will use the Israel–Hamas war to spread disinformation about Ukraine and create discord among the allies. When Russia blames the USA for tension in the Middle East, it indirectly gives the impression that because the USA has been focused on Ukraine, it has overlooked the growing tensions in the Middle East.
Such a narrative may somewhat reduce unconditional international support for Ukraine. And when that happens, the morale of the Ukrainian people and the army will be low. After that, Russia can strategically accelerate its military actions to achieve the desired results as soon as possible and some observers believe that Russia has already achieved the desired results.
After the recent attack on Israel, America assured Israel of its full support. The Israeli Prime Minister has already declared war on Hamas and Israel is continuously launching ground and air strikes on the Gaza Strip. As the war escalates Israel will need more and more arms supplies. Israel is also said to be looking to acquire Iron Dome missiles, precision guided missiles, and ammunition from the USA for a major attack on Hamas.
Recently, the US president has also appealed to Congress to approve heavy Israeli military aid. At recent meetings of NATO defense ministers, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the USA stood and would continue to stand with Israel, as it stood with Ukraine. Other Western and European countries have also announced their support for Israel in this war. But no one country can provide aid or arms to other countries beyond a certain limit or for a long period. Countries that are already providing arms or aid to Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war will now find it difficult to provide arms or military aid to Israel at the same time. Therefore, it would naturally be inevitable to cut off supplies to Ukraine to release arms and military aid to Israel.
It is clear from Russia’s action that it wants to take full advantage of the Hamas–Israel war and this advantage will not only be in a war against Ukraine, but also Russia can emerge as an alternative to the USA in the Middle East. But this new war has recently changed the recent trend of close relations between Russia and Israel. Israel had avoided overtly helping Ukraine because it needed Russia’s consent to attack targets inside Syria. But now Russia seems fully committed to helping Palestinians and Iran, especially in the diplomatic arena.
Russia had long been pushing for an end to US military aid to Ukraine. And now could not be a better time for Russia; when public support for military aid to Ukraine is 19 months old the Russia-Ukraine war is waning. Even before the war between Israel-Hamas broke out, there were signs that current and future US funding to Ukraine could be in jeopardy. Recently, the US Congress passed a stopgap funding bill that halted additional aid to Ukraine for 45 days. In addition, diplomatically, the continuation of US support for Ukraine is also getting difficult. Now with another conflict in the Middle East, supporting two allies in two separate wars at the same time will be a tough test for the USA.
This war in the Middle East is distracting Ukraine’s main allies from the Russia-Ukraine war, at the same time when public sentiment on the Ukraine war is already waning and after all this situation, the direction of operations in Russia –the Ukraine war can quickly change in favor of Russia.
Russia is a major oil and gas producer, so rising crude oil prices amid instability in the Middle East will also benefit Russia. In the first two weeks after the Hamas-Israel war, global oil prices rose seven percent. However, now the oil prices have stabilized a bit. But if the situation becomes more tense, this increase will be seen again. Due to these rising oil prices, Russia can earn huge foreign exchange by selling relatively cheap oil. Russia is expected to see a significant increase in its defense spending in 2024, so oil revenues could be very important for the country.
Russia is one of the few countries that have good relations with Israel and many countries in the Middle East. Therefore Russia is in a strong position to use these ties to mediate between bitter rivals such as Israel and Iran. On the one hand, Russia is importing weapons from Iran for the war against Ukraine. On the other hand, it also had a close relationship with Syria. Now since Israel is currently hostile to both Iran and Syria while having good relations with Russia, Russia is naturally in a better position than the USA to resolve this Middle East issue through diplomacy or negotiation.
At a time when the Israeli army reportedly fighting Iran-backed Hamas fighters and Iran-Israel relations deteriorating, Russia is not only blaming the USA for the whole situation but also calling for an end to the war by taking some practical steps. Recently, Russia submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire and condemning all military operations against the civilian population. This resolution was rejected by the USA which vetoed it, so Russia got the credit from all over the world for starting positive efforts for a ceasefire and only the USA made this attempt fail.
A few days ago, Russia’s ambassador to the UN gave a speech in which he blamed the USA for the emerging war in the Middle East. In addition, Putin also seems to emphasize that the recent tensions are a clear example of the failure of UN policy in the Middle East. In all this situation, Russia is trying to play a leading role in the geopolitics of the Middle East by reducing the role of the USA.
It is clear from Russia’s action that it wants to take full advantage of the Hamas–Israel war and this advantage will not only be in a war against Ukraine, but also Russia can emerge as an alternative to the USA in the Middle East. But this new war has recently changed the recent trend of close relations between Russia and Israel. Israel had avoided overtly helping Ukraine because it needed Russia’s consent to attack targets inside Syria. But now Russia seems fully committed to helping Palestinians and Iran, especially in the diplomatic arena.
Russia condemned the hostilities without naming Hamas in its condemnation resolutions, which is of course concern for Israel. President Biden has placed before the US Congress new emergency funding requests for both Israel and Ukraine. Now it remains to be seen whether the US Congress will reduce or eliminate aid to Ukraine. If this happens then Putin will have proven somewhat successful in his strategy.
