Though no formal decision has been announced as yet, the PML(N)’s Shehbaz Sharif is inching closer to becoming Prime Minister. However, the markets have already reacted to the meeting at PML(Q) chief Ch Shujat Hussain’ residence by gaining on Wednesday 1000 points lost by the benchmark KSE-100 Index. However, the KSE-100 has not recouped the losses since Friday, when the Index lost heavily. This was in contradiction to the Index’s trend after the last three elections, when it had risen two to three percent in the first two days after the poll. However, it should be noted that each time, it had been clear who would form the government. This time, the Parliament was so split that it was anyone’s guess, and clearly, the stock market could not be sure.
Another factor has been that the parties do not have widely differing approaches to the economy. They have been surprisingly reticent about their plans for the economy, and have been cagey about how they intend to tackle the economic crisis afflicting the country.
Therefore, when the news came that the IMF had shot down the government plan on the circular debt, it became clear that was another problem facing any new government, but for which the solution was not known. The Index’s positive reaction to Mr Sharif becoming PM should not be taken as a vindication of the PDM government, but simply as relief that a government, any government, was being formed. Another imponderable is the apparent withdrawal of Mian Nawaz Sharif. Will he be a backseat driver, as he was during the PDM government? Will he insist on Mr Ishaq Dar as Finance Minister?
Other decisions filtering in are that the PML(N) has nominated Ms Maryam Nawaz as Punjab CM, and the PTI has named Ali Amin Gandapur as KP CM. Ms Maryam’s nomination was probably inevitable after her father withdrew from his claim to the Prime Ministership. Mr Gandapur, a former member of Imran Khan’s Cabinet, is also provincial party president. The PPP is going to form the Sindh government, though it remains to be seen if it will do so on its own or if it will bring in the MQM(P). That might seem a heavy price to pay for MQM(P) support in Islamabad for a PML(N) PM, but that might be part of the cost of getting the Senate Chairmanship, the National Assembly Speakership and the Presidency.
