Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has been grappling with two perennial problems that have cast a shadow over its progress and prosperity: continued military interference in politics and a weak economy plagued by fiscal deficits, balance of payments challenges, and mounting debt levels. In some ways, these two problems are inextricably linked as perpetual military dominance of civilian affairs have seriously eroded rule of law, weakened institutions and threatened overall political stability. These twin issues continue to hinder Pakistan’s development and undermine its democratic aspirations, posing formidable challenges to the country’s stability and future prospects. Until these two domineering problems are resolved, Pakistan will continue to face a hanging sword, and in a worst case scenario, face balkanization and stripping away of its nuclear assets in the not too distant future.
The specter of military interference in politics has haunted Pakistan since its independence, with the military often wielding significant influence over the country’s governance and decision making processes. Despite periodic transitions to civilian rule, the military has remained a dominant force in Pakistan’s political landscape, shaping policies, influencing elections, and even orchestrating coups d’état to assert its authority.
The repercussions of military interference in politics have been profound, undermining democratic institutions, eroding civilian authority, and perpetuating a culture of instability and uncertainty. The military’s penchant for interventionism has stifled political dissent, curtailed civil liberties, and hindered the development of a vibrant and inclusive democracy. Moreover, the military’s preoccupation with political matters has diverted resources and attention away from pressing socio-economic challenges, exacerbating governance deficits and perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment.
To tackle the issue of continued military interference in politics, Pakistan must embark on a comprehensive reform agenda aimed at strengthening democratic institutions, safeguarding civil liberties, and promoting civilian supremacy. This requires enacting legal and institutional reforms to curb the military’s influence, fostering a culture of accountability and transparency, and empowering elected representatives to govern effectively. Moreover, fostering a national consensus on the primacy of civilian rule and the rule of law is essential for consolidating democracy and ensuring that Pakistan’s future is determined by its citizens, not its generals.
In addition to political instability, Pakistan grapples with a weak economy characterized by fiscal deficits, balance of payments challenges, and soaring debt levels. Persistent fiscal deficits, driven by excessive government and defence spending and inadequate revenue generation, have strained public finances, undermined investor confidence, and contributed to macroeconomic instability. Similarly, chronic balance of payments deficits has left Pakistan reliant on external borrowing to finance imports, exacerbating vulnerabilities and exposing the economy to external shocks. Pakistan is now on its 23rd IMF program since 1947 and going on to its 24th program in the coming months. Record high inflation coupled with low economic growth is translating into crushing poverty and shrinking job prospects for a country with large youth bulge.
Mounting debt levels pose a particularly daunting challenge, with Pakistan’s debt burden approaching unsustainable levels. High debt servicing costs divert scarce resources away from productive investments, limit fiscal space for social spending, and constrain economic growth prospects. Moreover, reliance on external borrowing exacerbates vulnerabilities, leaving Pakistan susceptible to fluctuations in global financial markets and changes in investor sentiment not to mention providing space for foreign interference and compromise on national interests.
To address Pakistan’s economic challenges, a multi-pronged approach is needed, encompassing fiscal consolidation, serious fundament and structural reforms, and prudent debt management strategies. This entails implementing measures to enhance revenue mobilization, rationalize expenditures, and improve public financial management to reduce fiscal deficits and contain debt accumulation. Moreover, fostering a conducive business environment, promoting export-led growth, and attracting foreign investment are essential for enhancing competitiveness, boosting exports, and narrowing the balance of payments gap. This is unlikely to happen if there is no political stability and rule of law that ensures no person or institution is above the law.
Additionally, implementing structural reforms to improve governance, enhance transparency, and strengthen institutions is critical for fostering sustainable economic development and reducing reliance on external borrowing. This includes reforms to improve the business climate, streamline regulatory processes, and enhance accountability and transparency in public procurement and project implementation amongst a host of other measures. Furthermore, prudent debt management practices, including debt restructuring, renegotiating terms of existing loans, and diversifying funding sources, are essential for mitigating debt-related risks and ensuring long-term debt sustainability. None of this is possible unless there is a strong civilian government that has the full mandate of its public.
As in the past, Pakistan seems to be incessantly standing at crossroads, confronted by the twin challenges of continued military interference in politics and a weak economy characterized by fiscal deficits, balance of payments challenges, and mounting debt levels. There is not much time left. Pakistan needs new ways of doing things differently and a shock therapy across the system is in order. The current system of status quo is likely to collapse upon itself or blow up in spontaneous combustion at some stage.
However, with resolve, political will, and concerted efforts, Pakistan can overcome these challenges and chart a path towards sustainable development, democratic consolidation, and inclusive prosperity. By strengthening democratic institutions, implementing rule of law both in letter and spirit whereby all institutions work within their constitutionally defined mandates, fostering economic growth, and implementing prudent fiscal and debt management policies, Pakistan can unleash its full potential and realize the aspirations of its people in due course. The time for action is now, and Pakistan must seize the opportunity to forge a brighter future for generations to come.
