The evening of 9 March 2022 came into the spotlight when an Indian cruise missile BrahMos exploded near the Pakistani Punjab city of Mian Channu.
It was an unarmed cruise missile which was accidentally launched from an Indian airbase. This cruise missile was also capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. However, no human causalty happened because this cruise missile didn’t carry any warhead on it.
Although it was a very unique incident during peacetime between India and Pakistan, the Western media did not cover this incident in their major news stories probably because it was diverted towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine at that time. After this incident both India and Pakistan acted with maturity, knowing that both are nuclear armed countries. Next day, on 10 March 022 Pakistan DG ISPR Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar held a press briefing in which he asked for an explanation from the Indian side about this incident, and stated that “Whatever caused this incident to happen, it is for the Indians to explain.”
Almost two years after this incident, in early 2024, PAF revealed that it acquired the Chinese HQ-16FE air defense system. This is a vastly improved variant of the LY-80 already in service with the Pakistan Army and the Pakistan Navy. The HQ-16FE seems to form the PAF’s medium-to-long-range air defense layer. This shows that Pakistan has learned its lesson from the BrahMos missile incident and now it is increasing its air defense sphere to avoid any future disaster
In response to this, on 15 March 2022, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh explained to the Indian Parliament that during regular maintenance a missile was released by mistake towards Pakistan, and due to this an inquiry had been initiated against the concerned officers. Later that year, in August, three Indian Air Force officers were sacked for the accidental firing of the missile into Pakistan. It is important to understand that if the same kind of incident had happened between India and Pakistan during the Pulwama Crisis of February 2019, the outcome would have been very disastrous.
Many netizens from India were saying that this missile firing was not an accident but in reality the Indians were checking the Pakistan air defense capabilities. However, this speculation was rejected by an Indian journalist Shekhar Gupta. According to his analysis, this incident had happened around 7 Pm IST. At that time the Indian air space was filled with civilian aircraft. Therefore, no one could take a chance to launch a cruise missile when the airspace is filled with civilian aircraft. This argument also supported the view that the BrahMos missile launch was accidental.
Thankfully both countries showed restraint after this incident. However, even if it was an accidental missile launch from the Indian airbase it raises some questions about the Pakistan air defence capabilities. One of the major questions was why Pakistan did not shoot down that incoming cruise missile and wait for it until it exploded near Mian Channu, even though it knew that this cruise missile was capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
While analyzing the Pakistan air defense capabilities there is no doubt that in the recent years Pakistan has heavily invested in its a0ir defences. Just a few months before the BrahMos missile incident, in October 2021, Pakistan Air defence forces inducted a Chinese made HQ-9/P Surface-To-Air Missile Defense System into service. It is considered as a strategic long range Surface-to-Air Missile system with remarkable flexibility and precision capable of intercepting multiple air targets including aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles. HQ-9/P has a capability for detecting beyond visual range weapons up to 125 km with a single shot kill probability.
This system is also considered equivalent to the Russian S-400 missile defense system. However, HQ-9/P is not the only missile defense system Pakistan have. In 2017, Pakistan Army inducted a Chinese-made Low-to-Medium Altitude Air Defense System (LOMADS) LY-80. The LY-80 is also known as HQ-16A in China and is a product of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corps (CASC). This missile defense system has a semi-active radar for tracking and guidance. This system can destroy incoming modern fighter jets, cruise missiles, and drones that are flying at an altitude up to 18 km.
Despite having these sophisticated air defense systems the Pakistani armed forces did not shoot down this incoming cruise missile, which raises many questions. DG ISPR in his press briefing justified not shooting down the missile due to the absence of an ongoing war between India and Pakistan. There are two supportive reasons for this justification.
The first probable reason why PAF did not shoot down this incoming cruise missile was because the trajectory of this missile was not towards any of the sensitive military installations. This may convince the Pakistani defense analysts that this incoming missile is fired by mistake because if it was a deliberate launch, its trajectory would probably have been towards a sensitive military installation in Pakistan.
The second reason is that if Pakistan shot down the incoming missile, India may perceive that now Pakistan is going to counterattack at India with its Hatf-7 Cruise missile which has a range of 350-700 km. In response India may have alerted its forces which can probably lead both countries towards an accidental war. However, if the cruise missile carries any of the warhead material with it. It probably can kill many innocent civilians in Pakistan, which couldn’t restrain Pakistan but to retaliate even knowing that it was an accidental fire. Luckily this incident did not last longer and both sides de-escalated the situation.
Almost two years after this incident, in early 2024, PAF revealed that it acquired the Chinese HQ-16FE air defense system. This is a vastly improved variant of the LY-80 already in service with the Pakistan Army and the Pakistan Navy. The HQ-16FE seems to form the PAF’s medium-to-long-range air defense layer. This shows that Pakistan has learned its lesson from the BrahMos missile incident and now it is increasing its air defense sphere to avoid any future disaster.
