With a hundred or so years of hegemony in global affairs and a bunch of colourful metaphors accumulation The Land of Opportunity; Big, Bold and Beautiful; and the Land of the Free and Home of Brave— US influence is predicted to wane. China, say experts, is right as rain for the role the USA has been performing. The Russian response, too, has been optimistic to join the race along with China, predicts Sam Altman’s created programme as the USA is facing the music. Although sole superpower replacement by the hands of China and Russia is not sure as shooting, it is debatable.
The 20th century belonged to the USA. Two times World War winner, resilient against the Great Depression, hegemonic in Asia and victorious in the race of the ‘Cold War’, the USS accrued power by hook or by crook. With the collapse of the USSR (1991)— hence the end of the Cold War— the USA became the sole superpower. ‘Bygone glory’, say analysts referring to the USA and forebode the coming of other powers to supersede the superpower.
Russia and China, say seasoned social scientists, are on the verge of replacing Uncle Sam soon. They are capable of toppling the USA and her boast of being ‘the police’ of the world. Right? Wrong!
The dictatorial regime led by Vladimir Putin in Russia and the authoritative status quo engineered by Mao Zedong in 1949 are far behind to come head to head with the USA. The Chinese empire is considered the real competitor compared to Russia given the population, policies and positive developments within the country. However, unlike the USA, they both depend on extractive institutions— both political and economic.
The Chinese political apparatus subsumes Marxist-Leninist-Maoist philosophies along with elements derived from Confucius and Shang Yang. Confucianism believes in peace, harmony and cooperative mechanism between the ruler and the ruled, whereas Shang Yang’s philosophies emphasise on strict approach. More coercive, lengthier ruling life. Basically, the carrot and stick modus operandi is applied to appease and intimidate simultaneously.
Perhaps, the Singaporean political method has exactly been xeroxed by China given the one-party rule in both countries. Plus, the Putin regime is no fan of democracy, inclusion and harmony, rather believes in dictatorial reign, or autocratic, at least.
The nature of history and its exclusive characteristic is that it is unpredictable. If Hosni Mubarak had known the reachability of the Arab Spring to his country, he would have made economic concessions to make sure of no harm to his reign. Same goes for the American Revolution itself along with the French Revolution and the fall of the mighty Roman empire.
Andrew Heywood called the 21st century, ‘the Asian Century’. Will the Asian countries push the pedal to surpass the previous superpower? Most importantly, will the USA let any Asian country or other to transcend it? Well, some experts cast a vote for China to become a superpower in the coming decades. Micheal Pillsbury, a Chinese expert, for instance, writes in The Hundred Year Marathon “China’s long term goal is to surpass America as the world’s preeminent superpower”. So does Graham Allison propose the Thucydides Trap, that war is highly likely if one power tries to overtake the other, implying Chinese growing hegemony. Even Barack Obama acknowledged the Chinese rise in times of his reign.
Predictions and arguments emphasise on the Chinese dominance in the coming decades while negating the undertones in inclusion of Russia. And rightly so, because the Russian regime is akin to dictatorial, or autocratic, given Putin’s return to office for a staggering fifth time. Since 1999— the time he ascended to power— Vladimir Putin has been reigning supreme in the largest land on the Earth with just four years out of office(2008-2012). (And he was PM then.)
Although Andrew Heywood allocated the 21st century for Asia, Europe, especially the European Union (EU) emerges as a real competitor on the condition it is considered as a single entity. Given its large land, inclusive institutions, diversified social frameworks, supranational federations, and common currency, it is a real actor in liberal lens to influence, and at times, supersede other powers. Ergo, the EU’s exclusion from the race for superpower status is farcical.
As Thucydides Trap suggests, superseding the superpower is a Herculean task with the mighty (the USA) playing every tactic to forestall the compromise on its hegemonic nature, and in case of escalation, what may come, war is highly likely. Nuclear Armageddon!
The US struggle of reaching the threshold she is currently standing on, was an unprecedentedly pupil-dilating journey, hence its replacement would cost an arm and a leg. Within this century, much is predicted to change. Chinese rise, fluctuations in the world order, and the coming of anarchy in global affairs are foreseeable realities.The missing mentions so far are I) the panacea for institutional extractiveness and segregated public-private relationship in Chinese case II) the likely rise of BRICS members— India as a top actor — III) the integration of China and the USA as unalienable strategic partners as a saying goes “if you cannot beat them, join them”.
The nature of history and its exclusive characteristic is that it is unpredictable. If Hosni Mubarak had known the reachability of the Arab Spring to his country, he would have made economic concessions to make sure of no harm to his reign. Same goes for the American Revolution itself along with the French Revolution and the fall of the mighty Roman empire.
A single critical juncture would hit the nail on the head for China and that will mark the final nail on the coffin of US hegemony.
