The United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5. According to election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate, Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump by 45.5% to 44.1%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. securing 5.0%.
After President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21, Trump held a 45.2% to 41.2% lead over Biden. Since then, Harris has improved the Democratic net margin by 5.4 points. By the election date, Biden will be nearly 82, Trump is currently 78, and Harris will be 60.
Silver’s model initially gave Trump a 73% chance of winning against Biden. When the Harris vs. Trump model was introduced last Tuesday, Trump had a 62% chance of winning. Currently, the model slightly favors Harris, giving her a 50.5% chance of victory.
In the U.S., the president is elected not by the national popular vote but through the Electoral College, where each state is allocated electoral votes primarily based on population. Nearly all states award their electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis, and a candidate needs 270 out of 538 total electoral votes to win.
Silver’s model suggests Harris has a 66% chance of winning the popular vote, but only a 50.5% chance in the Electoral College. The model indicates Harris needs to win the popular vote by at least two points to become the favorite in the Electoral College.
The race remains very close, with either Harris or Trump having a near 50-50 chance, but Harris has significantly improved the Democrats’ position since Biden’s withdrawal. Switching from Biden to Harris appears to have been a strategic move for the Democrats.
On the economic front, the unemployment rate increased by 0.2% to 4.3% in July, the highest since October 2021 when the U.S. was recovering from the COVID recession. A weaker economy could potentially benefit Trump.
