WASHINGTON WATCH
If Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for US president, were to take a decisive stance demanding that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded aid to Palestinians, she would expand her vote lead over her Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
This is one of the key findings of a recent poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute working with pollster John Zogby. Between the Republican and Democratic conventions, AAI surveyed 2,505 US voters to assess how the war in Gaza and U.S. policy toward Israel’s conduct of the war would impact their votes in November.
What the poll found was that 15 percent of all voters say that the crisis in Gaza would be “very important” in determining their vote (another 33 percent saying it’s “somewhat important”). But on this issue, like many others in today’s USA, there is a deep partisan divide— with Republicans more supportive of Israel and Democrats favoring Palestinians.
Looking more closely at the data, we find that the partisan divide actually results from deep differences in the views of the demographic groups forming each party’s base— with younger and non-white voters more sympathetic toward Palestinians and critical of Israel, and older, white, and “born-again” Christians much more favourable toward Israel.
For example, most voters in all groups, except Republicans and “born-again” voters, disapprove of the way Israel is conducting the war, feel Israel has used too much force in Gaza, want an immediate ceasefire, and oppose unrestricted financial and military support for Israel if it continues to operate in a manner that puts civilian lives at risk.
A plurality of all voters (43 percent) disapprove of how Israel is conducting the war, with only one-third approving. Those disapproving include 54 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of young voters.
In addition, 36 percent of all likely voters feel that Israel has used too much force, including 46 percent of 18–34-year-olds.
One area where there is near unanimity is with regard to the importance of an “immediate ceasefire.” Three-quarters of all voters say this is important to them— one-half say “very important” and another one-quarter say “somewhat important.” Only 11 percent say it’s “not important.” This super-majority includes Democrats, Republicans, and Independents and majorities of every demographic sub-group. The most substantial majorities come, of course, from young and non-white voters. Only very small percentages in all groups say an immediate ceasefire is not important.
Another area where there is strong support from most subsets of voters is in response to a question asking whether Israel should continue to receive unrestricted US aid or whether that aid should be conditioned on Israel’s use of that aid in a way that harms civilians. Only 28 percent feel Israel should always receive unrestricted aid, while 51 pecent say there should be no unrestricted aid if Israel endangers civilians. On this question, GOP voters are evenly split at 40 percent, while by a margin of 59 percent to 20 percent Democrats oppose unrestricted aid to Israel. Independents oppose it 56 percent to 26 percent.
One area where Harris can grow support is by building on her already stated compassion for Palestinian suffering, her call for an immediate ceasefire, and her implied concern for how Israel has acted in this war by making clear that there will be consequences if the war continues, a step President Biden has been loath to take.
Overall, the Biden administration receives low marks for its handling of the war—31 percent positive and 50 percent negative—a negative view shared by voters in all parties and demographic groups. The poll reveals that this dissatisfaction provides an opportunity for Vice President Harris. When asked how it would affect their vote if Harris were to demand that Israel agree to an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded human aid into Gaza, voters overwhelmingly support such a move, while only a scant number oppose it. A deeper look into the numbers shows significant gain and very little risk for Harris by taking this stand, including very positive outcomes and few negatives among most key groups, including a plurality of Jewish voters. It would also win her the support of a plurality of those traditionally Democratic voters who are currently supporting third-party candidates or who remain undecided. Overall, if Harris were to take this stand, her vote tally would increase from 44 percent to 50 percent.
The same positive results hold true if Harris were to support a suspension of arms shipments and withhold diplomatic support for Israel until there was a ceasefire and withdrawal of forces from Gaza. Such a stand would increase her support from 44 percent to 49 percent.
The poll also revealed that Democrats, concerned with President Biden’s age and capacity, were overwhelmingly supportive of his decision to step down as a candidate. This was especially true among Democratic voters. The President’s policy toward Gaza was also a factor, especially among young and non-White voters.
At the start of August, VP Harris held a slim lead against former President Trump in both a head-to-head and multi-candidate contest. This poll found the same to be true.
Both Harris and Trump have consolidated support among voters from their respective parties. Harris’ favourable/unfavourable ratings are better than Trump’s, with her strongest support coming from young and non-White voters. Trump’s support is strongest among White and born-again voters. Given the deep divisions in the American electorate, the presidential contest will most likely remain close.
One area where Harris can grow support is by building on her already stated compassion for Palestinian suffering, her call for an immediate ceasefire, and her implied concern for how Israel has acted in this war by making clear that there will be consequences if the war continues, a step President Biden has been loath to take.
