The involvement of the USA in Ukraine and the South China Sea exemplifies its longstanding rivalry with China and Russia. This rivalry has led to the formation of new alliances that could potentially support territorial disputes, with these groups pitted against one another while simultaneously coordinating economic security cooperation. Consequently, the Pakistan-China-Russia alignment is largely shaped by their shared interests.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) plays a significant role in this alignment as it has the potential to bring Pakistan closer to Pan-Eurasian integration. As the flagship project of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), CPEC could link Pakistan with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Iran, SAARC, China. Although CPEC does not directly run through Russia, there is a possibility of branch routes connecting through Xinjiang to the Central Asian Republics, potentially extending to Russia. The Altai Republic, which borders Xinjiang, could also be linked to CPEC through a northern branch route. This could give Russia access to energy-rich regions global markets, which it could leverage to develop its Siberian region.
Russia’s grand strategic vision of becoming a dominant force in the Eurasian supercontinent has inspired its leadership to revisit relations with Pakistan. This has led to a game-changing inclusive partnership with Pakistan to address common challenges, such as the threat posed by ISIS in Afghanistan, to collaborate on the CPEC initiative. The emerging defense relationship between Russia and Pakistan serves as the backbone of their evolving rapprochement reflecting new strategic thinking by both countries toward South Asia.
Furthermore, defense exports from Russia could enhance Pakistan’s capacity to counter terrorism and lay the foundation for expanded military cooperation, potentially including the acquisition of jets, tanks, and other munitions if conditions are favorable. In recent years, India has diversified its defense partnerships with countries like the USA, Japan, Israel, France, which have eroded Russia’s dominance in India’s defence market. As a result, Russia is seeking new arms markets in the region to expand its defence relationships. The joint military drill between Russia and Pakistan, known as Druzhba, in 2016 marked a fast-track trajectory in developing these ties amid the changing geopolitics of South Asia.
The most promising area of cooperation between Russia and Pakistan in the near future is Afghanistan. Moscow has hosted several peace conferences in recent years, snd Pakistan’s participation in these talks demonstrates the growing alignment between Russia and Pakistan regarding the future role of the Taliban as an anti-terrorist force. This shift in Russia’s strategic calculus, away from its Cold War stance, is driven by concerns about ISIS infiltrating the CARs, which could destabilize the region.
Instead of relying on military might, Russia has turned to diplomatic solutions, using regional actors like Pakistan to achieve results in the fight against terrorism. Given Pakistan’s long border with Afghanistan and its historical relations with both Kabul and the Taliban, strategic coordination between Islamabad and Moscow could open new avenues of cooperation in the future.
The convergence of interests between Russia and Pakistan, particularly regarding ISIS, the recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate actor, and the stability of Afghanistan, is bringing the two states closer at a rapid pace. Additionally, the energy sector offers another area for deepening relations between the two countries. Pakistan and Russia have already initiated cooperation with the construction of the North-South gas pipeline. Pakistan, which needs alternative energy resources to meet its growing demand, can benefit from Russia’s expertise in this field. The evolving cooperation between Islamabad and Moscow signals to the world that both states are working within a traditional framework of cooperation. Pakistan could potentially benefit from Siberian resources by utilizing the Xinjiang-CPEC route for energy imports. If the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project faces political obstacles, the Altai-Xinjiang pipeline could be an ideal alternative for Pakistan.
The mutual interests driving the Moscow-Islamabad partnership are contributing to a shift in international relations. In Europe, Russia is involved in a confrontation with the West over Ukraine, and is under Western sanctions due to its actions in Crimea. In the Asia-Pacific, tensions have escalated between China and its neighbouring countries due to China’s actions in the South China Sea. These developments have pushed China and Russia to seek new allies, which explains the growing rapport between the two powers.
The strong leg of the China-Russia-Pakistan triangle is the China-Pakistan link. Pakistan and China have been traditional allies, supporting each other historically in areas such as military equipment diplomacy. China has assisted Pakistan in building nuclear reactors, Pakistan, in collaboration with China, has developed the JF17 fighter jet. Pakistan is one of the largest importers of Chinese defence equipment and is set to acquire eight Chinese S20 or Yuan-class submarines. China has also invested in the Karakoram Corridor and Gwadar Port. The growing strategic partnership between India and the USA in areas of shared defence interests is a source of concern for Pakistan. The relationship between Pakistan and the USA has been turbulent, it reached a low point with the Trump administration’s policy on Afghanistan.
The alignment of interests between Russia, China, Pakistan largely stems from their shared opposition to the USA. For Russia and China, the USA is seen as a hegemonic force that threatens their security. Pakistan, due to its longstanding conflict with India, is willing to be part of an Asian security architecture designed by China. Russia, meanwhile, sees an opportunity to establish a strategic relationship with Pakistan as India diversifies its list of military suppliers to include the USA and Israel.
Regarding technology and energy supplies, Russia offers an alternative source for the region. Russia could gain access to new markets for its defence equipment and may continue to supply arms to both India and Pakistan. Russia’s decision to arm Pakistan is significant because it indicates that Moscow is no longer giving preferential treatment to its old strategic partner, India.
While India remains an important economic partner for Russia, the divergence of interests between Moscow and New Delhi is becoming more apparent as Russia grows closer to China. China, with its strong economy and substantial foreign reserves, is looking to invest in secure energy supplies. Pakistan, with its large youthful population, needs energy resources and defence equipment. The new alignment will give Pakistan access to Russian technology, which is often the source of many Chinese products.
The mutual interests driving the Moscow-Islamabad partnership are contributing to a shift in international relations. In Europe, Russia is involved in a confrontation with the West over Ukraine, and is under Western sanctions due to its actions in Crimea. In the Asia-Pacific, tensions have escalated between China and its neighbouring countries due to China’s actions in the South China Sea. These developments have pushed China and Russia to seek new allies, which explains the growing rapport between the two powers. However, the question remains whether this partnership can evolve into a formal alliance given the historical distrust between the countries. The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” seems to apply here, as the shared perception of the USA as a common adversary is the most important factor driving this alignment, superseding other considerations. China needs new allies to reshape the global order, and this process begins in Asia.
