Turkiye has responded to the terrorist attack on an aerospace company near Ankara by bombing a wide range of targets in Syria and Iraq directed against Kurd separatists, which it accused of being behind the attack. The Kurdish problem has bedevilled Turkiye since it came into existence, and has waxed and waned depending on how much outside help the Kurds could muster. The existence of large numbers of Kurds in at least four countries (Turkiye, Syria, Iran and Iraq) not only complicates the domestic politics of each, but also their regional relations. The Turkish Air Force used both planes and drones to hit about 300 targets including bakeries, power stations, oil facilities and [Kurdish] Internal Security Force checkpoints, in both Syria and Iraq. Caution seems to have been less important in leaving Iran alone than the fact that it seems to have no suitable targets to offer and no involvement in the attack on the aerospace and defence company Tusaş. Still, it cannot escape Iran’s notice that two of its allies have been hit.
The strike by a NATO member, which has been assured by the NATO Secretary General of support, against Iranian allies, particularly at a time of heightened tension in the Middle East because of the Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip, is risky. It is noticeable that US allies are at the most cavalier in dealing with Iran, with first Israel behaving as if it wanted a regional conflict to break out, while Turkiye has also been responsive. Iran has also said that it will avoid conflict when Hezbollah was attacked in Lebanon, so there is no reason to suppose that it will respond to these attacks on its allies, unless of course those attacks are repeated.
Again, there seems no reason why there should be a repeat of the attacks, unless the Kurd separatists respond with more terrorist attacks. Pakistan knows the cost of that, as was expressed by the President and Prime Minister in their messages of support issued almost immediately. Kurd opinion might be crucial. In recent elections, the Kurd vote has gone to the CHP, offering the odd sight of Kurd nationalists supporting Kemalists. The nationalists of Turkiye are stronger than the Baloch nationalists of Pakistan, which would explain why there is a crossborder element to Kurd separatism absent from Baloch separtism.
