The unfolding geopolitical circumstances suggest that anticipating a war in the current geopolitical scenario is no longer premature. It may not be in the favour of any established or emerging powers, but it cannot be ignored altogether.
International legal and regulatory standards are in decline, the arms race is surging, nuclear deterrence is eroding, and territorial conquests on the mediaeval lines have reemerged as a strategic reality. Israel’s blatant and disproportionate attacks on Gaza in response to the October 7 attacks and its subsequent attacks on Iran’s satellites across the Middle East have further fuelled speculations about a looming conflict between Iran and Israel, raising serious concerns for regional stability
Iran has launched several missiles at Israel after its strike against Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In retaliation, Tel Aviv has claimed to inflict a decisive blow on Tehran. Under the given strategic ambiguities and fog of war, what implications would it bring for Pakistan if Iran and Israel got locked in a violent conflict? What might be the impact of a possible Iran-Israel conflict on Pakistan.?
In the event of a conflict, Pakistan would face significant diplomatic challenges. With heavy reliance on US aid and financial assistance, any support for Iran could result in US sanctions, including the suspension of critical loans. On the other hand, Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further complicates the situation. China’s dependency on Iranian oil, accounting for approximately 8.5 billion of its imports, could lead Beijing to pressurize Islamabad to either support Iran or remain neutral. Regardless of the outcome, Pakistan would inevitably face significant geopolitical and economic consequences.
Pakistan is likely to face significant security challenges in the event of a conflict. With its shared border with Iran, Balochistan would be vulnerable to heightened border tensions. If a full-fledged war breaks out, Pakistan could also see an influx of refugees, particularly Iranian Baloch, adding further strain to an already overburdened system coping with Afghan refugees. This would exacerbate the existing economic and social pressures. Not just that, but the chances of increased sectarian violence could rise, further destabilizing the region.
The ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, could become more complicated, as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) might take advantage of rising border tensions to expand its influence into Iran, particularly as it claims the Sistan province of Iran as part of a Greater Balochistan. The border situation could provide an opportunity for the BLA to further its agenda in the region. In case of war, the BLA stands to benefit, raising serious concerns about Pakistan’s capacity to manage the insurgency amidst heightened regional instability. The key question is whether Pakistan, already grappling with internal conflict, can afford these added security risks.
In the event of war, Pakistan would face severe economic implications. Iran’s control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz could disrupt vital trade routes. The future of projects like CPEC and the Iran-Pakistan pipeline would be jeopardized, further undermining Pakistan’s economic stability. Iranian oil is transported to Pakistan in huge amounts via different means, so if forced to source energy from alternative markets, Pakistan would incur higher costs, worsening its already struggling economy. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would not only impact Pakistan but also trigger a global economic domino effect, destabilizing energy markets worldwide.
Pakistan may also face significant societal pressures due to the strong public sentiment toward Palestine, and at the same time it may leave Islamabad in the dilemma to balance between the West and Iran. Domestically, there would be growing pressure from various segments of society, particularly from the Shia minority, to support Iran. It will be interesting to see how the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) responds to the situation, with Pakistan’s position being particularly important. As a key member and the only nuclear state in the OIC, Pakistan’s role could be crucial in shaping its stance and actions in addressing the growing tensions in the region. Public opinion, shaped by a sense of solidarity with Iran’s stance, may push Pakistan to support Iran, complicating Pakistan’s ability to navigate its already delicate geopolitical position.
Pakistan must adopt a proactive strategy. It should urge international powers, competing states and global institutions to force adversaries to show responsible and restrained behaviour. Islamabad must also persuade the international community to check the disproportionate attacks of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon as it is fueling the geopolitical tensions. Clear communication with key stakeholders, such as China and the USA, is essential to ensure understanding of Pakistan’s stance, emphasizing the broader implications of instability. Finally, Pakistan must take robust precautionary measures to secure its borders, especially in Balochistan. Effective border management is essential to prevent any external actors from destabilizing the region or taking advantage of the situation to disrupt the peace in Balochistan.
