AT PENPOINT
After the first day of the PTI’s latest protest, neither had party founder Imrn Khan been sprung from Adiala Jail, nor had Shehbaz Sharif fallen from office. In that respect it was a failure. It was prolonged, because failure was not really an option. This was supposed to be a final call, a now-or-never do-or-die situation, where the PTI was to expend itself in a final effort to achieve its political goal, which is to re-install Imran Khan in power.
Even though the PTI called off the protest on Wednesday, saying that it was not a military or armed party, KP CM Ali Amin Gandapur said the protest was on, and only Imran could call it off.
However, there is one fatal flaw: the PTI is not a revolutionary party. It had previously achieved power by means of the ballot box. Whether or not it received help from the establishment is irrelevant. There are others who seek that sort of help, but have not got it. Therefore, an overthrow of the entire system is not possible. Indeed, it is not contemplated. The purpose of the PTI rally was to force the establishment to talk to it, to replace the present government by it; not to storm the battlements, so to speak, and seize the levers of power.
However, one of the problems the PTI faces is that it is a status-quo party, though it wants to posture as a revolutionary party. Its attempt at a coup on 9 May 2023 blew up in its face because of this. Because it is a status-quo party, its supporters are willing to vote for it, but not die for it. After all, it is because of what it promises in this life that its supporters are unwilling to die.
What it demands cannot really be achieved within the present legal and constitutional framework, not without recourse to the same methods that it decries. The 26th Amendment cannot be rolled back without two-thirds majorities in Parliament. Imran Khan cannot be released without at least bail from the courts hearing his cases. Similarly, all those in jail cannot be released unless the cases are withdrawn or bail is granted. These demands imply a control by the executive, or even the establishment, over the judicial process, that many believe it does have, but which it is not supposed to.
Then there is the question of what the PTI is offering. Clearly, what it had provided before was insufficient. The main problem seems to have been the economy, or rather the IMF. The PTI may not be a revolutionary party, but it is a populist one. IMF conditionalities may have been harsh, but they are necessary unless one is ready to upend the entire system. The botch the PTI is supposed to have made of foreign relations is incredible. The PTI narrative of US wishes does not seem to apply, as the relationship with China was as rocky as that with Saudi Arabia, though one was a US rival and the other a friend.
So what does the PTI have to offer that the PML(N) can’t provide? Any commitment to democracy will not last Imran’s oath-taking. He has a track record, just as much as Mian Nawaz does, and it should be noted that Mian Nawaz has been kept out of office. The establishment is not so clearly in control, but that may simply because it has learnt discretion. Though it cannot be said that none followed Mian Nawaz back home from London, the number of carpetbaggers and parachutists is also certainly less, which is helpful in the opinion of the establishment. The only plea seems to be that he is a nuisance, that he has no compunction about embarrassing the country in front of foreign visitors. Or does he have a grading system, under which the SCO Summit merited a postponement, but Belrus did not.
The narrative is confused. The revelation by Imran’s wife, Bushra Bibi, that his walking barefoot in Madina led to Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa being called and asked why someone had been brought bent on bringing the Shariah when the caller was bent on ending it in Saudi Arabia, is meant to fuel a narrative that promotes Imran as a champion of Islam. That is apparently a good card to play, for everyone has laid claim to it, even Zulfikar Ali Bhutto through the OIC Summit and making Qadianis non-Muslims, which lets the PPP claim to be both an Islamic party and a liberal.
The main problem for the PTI is how to fill time till the next election. It seems the now-or-never rally has been answered with a resounding ‘never’, or at least a ‘not now.’ The very depth of commitment of PTI supporters means they cannot do the reasonable thing and find another party (or leave politics). Much will also depend on Imran’s own attitude. Whatever he does, he should remember the boy in the fable who cried ‘wolf too often.
The PPP’s ideology is supposed to have been fathered by the likes of J.A. Rahim and Meraj Muhammad Khan, but it should not be forgotten that Bhutto was himself a very well-read man. ‘Well-read’ is not the adjective that springs to mind when Imran is mentioned. The PPP developed an ideology because of this. Imran has had intellectual heavyweights like Ali Amin Gandpur and Bushra Bibi.
The role of those two has also been controversial. Bushra Bibi has been blamed by the government for the breakdown of talks. By emphasizing her extremism she might be trying to steal a march over Imran’s sisters. There are at the moment three different possibilities for the PTI leadership, all of them members of his family. Bushra Bibi is obviously, with her five children by her first husband in the background. His sisters Uzma and Aleema are trying to get this legacy, each with her own children. In England is Jemima Khan, his first wife, and her two sons, Imran’s only acknowledged issue, as well as the girl reputed to be his daughter, but whom he does not acknowledge.
The PTI is becoming as dynastic a party as the PPP or the PML(N). However, while the PPP made the transition after Bhutto’s hanging, the PML(N) already seems to have made the transition even while Mian Nawaz Sharif is still alive. The PTI has made a transition of sorts, with Barrister Gohar Ali Khan as Chairman, Imran Khan is still firmly in control. This dynastic rivalry, which is also a family rivalry, between the wife nd the sisters, is causing difficulties.
The PTI is experiencing difficulties because of the lack of ideology. There does not seem any real reason to go on offering sacrifices. There is a willingness to vote for Imran’s candidate, but it seems that there is no willingness to storm barricades or man them.
There were six deaths of protesters reported in various hospitals, and there were also four Rangers killed in a bizarre traffic accident, as they were run over. The driver is accused of belonging to the PTI. The risk of confrontation has been enhanced since the 2014 dharna, which only ended when the Army Public School Peshawar was attacked. The military has not been called out, though, which is perhaps a saving grace, though for the PTI means that the 1977 playbook is not being followed. Though the PTI is claiming eight workers killed, unlike the PNA movement, when deaths occurred all over the country, the momentum has not been created.
It has been pointed out that the 1969 agitation was followed by the Yahya Martial Law and the 1977 agitation by Zia’s. Thus, a military takeover would be as beneficial to the PTI as Zia’s to the PNA. Apart from some individuals becoming ministers, nothing was gained, and most of the PNA parties found themselves in the MRD alongside the PPP. The PTI might find itself in a similar position, down to being in the same situation with respect to an alliance with the PPP.
However, that would mean taking a long route, and there is no guarantee of Imran lasting the course. There is also the risk of Imran suffering Bhutto’s fate, though Nawaz Sharif’s should be a positive precedent.
The main problem for the PTI is how to fill time till the next election. It seems the now-or-never rally has been answered with a resounding ‘never’, or at least a ‘not now.’ The very depth of commitment of PTI supporters means they cannot do the reasonable thing and find another party (or leave politics). Much will also depend on Imran’s own attitude. Whatever he does, he should remember the boy in the fable who cried ‘wolf’ too often.
