Pakistan and Afghanistan, two prominent nations in South Asia, hold critical roles in the international political arena. Afghanistan, a landlocked country at the confluence of South and Central Asia, shares a 2,670-kilometer-long border with Pakistan, referred to as the Durand Line. Both countries occupy a strategically vital position at the crossroads of South Asia and the Middle East, functioning as essential transit routes historically and geopolitically. Afghanistan’s geographical location along the ancient Silk Road underscores its importance as a key transit hub, while Pakistan’s role as a major partner in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) further solidifies its status as a linchpin of regional economic integration.
Given their strategic significance, any challenges faced by these two nations reverberate across the South Asian region. Among these challenges, the water dispute over the Kabul River stands out as a critical issue with the potential to escalate tensions. The conflict surrounding this major tributary can be analyzed effectively using the Conflict Tree Model, a framework introduced by Johan Galtung, a pioneering Norwegian sociologist and a foundational figure in Peace and Conflict Studies. This model offers a systematic approach to understanding conflicts by delineating their root causes, central problems, and visible consequences.
The absence of a bilateral treaty regulating water usage between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a primary root cause of the dispute. Such an agreement could have prevented the current disruptions in water management. For example, Afghanistan’s refusal to participate in a 2006 World Bank-supported conference on water cooperation obstructed progress that might have mitigated tensions. Another historical factor contributing to the conflict is the 1921 Treaty of Kabul, signed between Afghanistan and British India. This treaty granted British authorities and tribes on the Indian side, now Pakistan, the right to use the Kabul River for irrigation and navigation. However, Afghanistan later contested Pakistan’s legal succession to these rights, arguing that it did not inherit them after the partition of British India. This contention has become a fundamental basis of Afghanistan’s claims over the river.
Political disputes have further deepened the divide, with Afghanistan’s historical support for the Pashtunistan Movement, which called for the independence of Pashtun-majority regions in northwest Pakistan, straining relations. Compounding these historical and political issues are contemporary challenges posed by population growth and climate change. Both countries face increasing water scarcity due to climate-induced changes, intensifying competition over shared water resources.
The situation has become more critical with Afghanistan’s ongoing construction of twelve dams along the Kabul River, aimed at generating 1,177 MW of electricity. Supported by India, these projects, such as the Salma Dam on the Hari River and the Shahtoot Dam, are designed to store 4.7 million acre-feet of water. These initiatives are projected to significantly reduce the water flow into Pakistan, with estimates suggesting a potential decline of 16-17 percent, posing severe implications for Pakistan’s water availability, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Already experiencing water scarcity, Pakistan’s per capita water availability has plummeted from over 5,000 cubic meters in the 1960s to less than 1,000 cubic meters today, placing immense pressure on its agrarian economy, which relies on water for 63 percent of its agricultural land.
To resolve this escalating dispute, Pakistan and Afghanistan must prioritize their shared challenges, such as electricity shortages and inefficient institutional frameworks. Collaborative engagement, supported by international mediation, offers a viable path forward. Involving the World Bank to facilitate the negotiation of a bilateral treaty, akin to the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, could provide a structured framework for equitable water sharing. Such an agreement would foster cooperation, mitigate tensions, and ensure sustainable resource management, offering a win-win solution for both nations. Addressing the Kabul River dispute peacefully could serve as a significant step toward transforming their historically strained relationship into one of mutual benefit and regional stability
The dispute is further aggravated by geopolitical tensions, with Pakistan perceiving India’s involvement in Afghan water projects as a threat to its national security. Given the historical animosity between India and Pakistan, both countries are deeply invested in pursuing policies that protect their respective strategic interests in Afghanistan. This competition has exacerbated existing challenges, such as outdated irrigation systems and inefficient water management practices on both sides, which have led to the overuse of limited water resources.
Manifestations of these conflicts, as described in the Conflict Tree Model, include harsh diplomatic exchanges and hostile rhetoric between Pakistan and Afghanistan. These public statements often reflect deeply entrenched historical grievances and mutual mistrust. For instance, in the aftermath of a protest organized by the PTI, Pakistan’s Information Minister Atta Muhammad Tarar accused Afghan nationals and criminals of participating in the demonstrations, highlighting the strained relations between the two countries.
The economic repercussions of the water dispute are profound, particularly for Pakistan, whose agriculture-dependent economy is highly vulnerable to water shortages. Reduced water availability directly impacts crop production, threatening food security and economic stability. The broader regional implications of the conflict further underscore the urgency of addressing this issue, as prolonged instability could jeopardize peace and cooperation across South Asia.
To resolve this escalating dispute, Pakistan and Afghanistan must prioritize their shared challenges, such as electricity shortages and inefficient institutional frameworks. Collaborative engagement, supported by international mediation, offers a viable path forward. Involving the World Bank to facilitate the negotiation of a bilateral treaty, akin to the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, could provide a structured framework for equitable water sharing. Such an agreement would foster cooperation, mitigate tensions, and ensure sustainable resource management, offering a win-win solution for both nations. Addressing the Kabul River dispute peacefully could serve as a significant step toward transforming their historically strained relationship into one of mutual benefit and regional stability.
