AT PENPOINT
Everyone seems surprised at how fast Bashar Al-Assad fell from the Presidency of Syria, even though the uprising that overthrew him had gone on for eight years, and led to the deaths of as many as 617,000 people, and 12 million displaced, about half internally in Syria itself, the rest as refugees in neighbouring countries. At the same time, no one seems to have realized that this fall was merely the unfinished business of the Arab Spring.
2011 was the big year for the Arab Spring, which started in 2010, with Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt falling in 2011, and Ali Abdullah Al-Saleh of Yemen in 2012. Sustained street demonstrations took place in Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman and Sudan. Minor protests took place in Djibouti, Mauritania, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Western Sahara. And civil war started in Syria.
The fighting intensified to the point in 2015 that the Assad regime seemed about to fall. However, Russian forces directly intervened on Bashar’s behalf, bombing the rebels, while special forces, military advisers and military contractors also came in. Iran provided ground forces in the form of Hezbollah fighters, who were also easily accessible from neighbouring Lebanon. Houthi fighters in Yemen were not used because of this access problem, not to mention that they were required to fight in Yemen, also not stabilized since the Arab Spring.
Hamas fighters were also not used, for they were theologically opposed to Assad.
Indeed, because Assd was a Nusairi Shia, Iran supported him. Nusairis, or Alawis, are considered heretical even by the Ithna-ashari, but still be preferable to the Haiat Tahrir Sham, who trace themselves to Al-Qaida via the Jabhat An-Nusra, which was how it came to prominence.
It was perhaps because of the Assads not just being Nusairis, but promoting other Nusairis in a big way, that the rebellion in Idlib was initially seen as a Sunni-Shia conflict.
The Assad regime fell because there was no more outside help forthcoming. First Russia had to withdraw, even though it retained its naval base in Latakia which was the reason for its propping up the regime, because of its invasion of Ukraine. Then Israel attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran was itself too busy to provide help.
Perhaps the deciding factor was that Bashar did not really have the stomach for the fight. His remaining in office since 2001 indicates that he liked the office, but it might also be remembered that originally his elder brother Bassel was to have succeeded, and only after Bassel was killed in a road accident in 1994 that he was picked. By then he had qualified as an ophthalmologist, and it is said that in exile in Russia, he wants to build an eye hospital in Dubai, not attempt to return to power.
However, it is not as if he shied away from blood. There are horrific reports coming out of Syria of bodies being piled in morgues. It must be noted that the rebellion against him came from Hama, which had risen against his father in 1982, which was only suppressed by a major military operation in which upto 40,000 people were killed. This time around, 15 times that number were killed.
One of the consequences of Bashar’s ouster is that the Baath Party, which had combined socialism and Arab nationalism, has been ousted completely. When Hafez Al-Assad ruled in Syria and Saddam Hussain in Iraq, the Baath Party ruled two countries. It was unable to take over Egypt, where Gamaal Abdul Nasser espoused his own brand of Arab nationalism. However, it was the manifestation of the Baath ideology just as much as the USSR was that of Marxism-Leninism.
The fall of the Assad regime is likely to prove seminal, because it is both a completion of the first Arab Spring, and because it puts a twist in the Israeli massacre in Gaza. It might even set off another Arab Spring, because the regimes which seemingly weathered it are even more unpopular than ever before, and their monumental ineffectiveness on the Gaza issue has not helped.
The USA overthrew half of Baath by overthrowing Saddam. However, though Israel has engaged in a massacre of Gazan Palestinians, and it has stepped up its incursions into the West Bank, it has left the PLO in place. The PLO is the last remnant of the Arab nationalist vision that dominated the Arab intellectual landscape for over a century.
Arab nationalism was first a counter to Ottoman rule, but now it seems to have outlived its utility. The Arabs have two options: either to find a new driving force, or to go back in the past for one. A new ideology is not on the horizon, so that leaves the original ideology that gave them an impetus, Islam.
Political Islam is ruthlessly suppressed. It survives only in Tunisia, as a parliamentary party, but the President seems on the way to restoring the arbitrary rule the original rebellion was against. Similarly, in Egypt there were presidential elections, followed by Muhammad Morsi of the Ikhwanul Muslimeen winning, but he was first overthrown and then hanged by Field Marshal Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi, who has once again established a dictatorship. Libya is now ruled by two governments, and it seems there is no solution in sight. Yemen is undergoing civil war.
Therefore, if political Islam rears its head, it will be crushed. It is possible to see the reporting about the HTS leader, Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani, that the West wants to engage him. His links to Turkish intelligence link him to the Erdogan government, which in turn is part of NATO. If, like Erdogan, he keeps his political Islam within bounds, his acceptability in Western capitals might rise, but he still has a lot of work to do: the HTS is still banned.
There are even allegations that Al-Jolani is actually directly linked with the USA through the CIA. There is even an allegation that the Israelis have been helping him, even funding him. This means that he may be pressed to take further steps to establish his bona fides. This comes from the view that he was supposed to act more slowly, but was forced to move because of the pressure of other groups in his coalition (it should not be forgotten that he does not have a unified army, but a coalition of forces under him).
One thing political Islam has not attempted so far is the revision of borders. Putting a body like the HTS in charge in Damascus may mean the revival of the concept of Bilad-ush-Sham, which includes Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Iraq has been the subject of contention between the Romans and Persians, and after an intervening near-millenium of being the capital of the Abbasi Caliphs, the Ottomans and the Persians. Even now, it is possible to discern that connection, as Iran exerts influence in both Syria and Iraq, while Daesh took over the desert area of both countries. An integral component of Shaam is Israel. Al-Jolani’s forces are presently in no state to take on Israel, even if it is engaged in Gaza and Lebanon. However, it will not be easy for him to resist pressure from his mujahideen base to avoid action, especially after Israel announced annexation of the remainder of the Golan Haights, from which Al-Jolani derives his name.
The fall of the Assad regime is likely to prove seminal, because it is both a completion of the first Arab Spring, and because it puts a twist in the Israeli massacre in Gaza. It might even set off another Arab Spring, because the regimes which seemingly weathered it are even more unpopular than ever before, and their monumental ineffectiveness on the Gaza issue has not helped.
