The Abraham Accords, signed during Donald Trump’s first presidency, represent a significant milestone in the history of Middle Eastern diplomacy. These agreements sought to normalize relations between Israel and four Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Hailed as a breakthrough for regional stability, the accords have sparked considerable debate regarding their long-term implications, particularly under shifting US administrations.
As Trump reenters the political spotlight, questions surrounding the future of the Abraham Accords have gained renewed attention. This analysis examines the accords’ potential trajectory under a Trump presidency or another administration, while exploring their broader geopolitical implications. The Abraham Accords emerged as a cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy, emphasizing peace, economic collaboration and security cooperation in a region often characterized by longstanding animosities. By facilitating normalization agreements between Israel and key Arab states, Trump sought to reshape the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
These accords represented a shift from decades of conventional Arab-Israeli diplomacy, which had historically hinged on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Instead, the Abraham Accords bypassed this stalemate, focusing on fostering bilateral ties and advancing pragmatic interests. Central to the accords was the goal of economic integration.
Israel and the UAE, for instance, quickly engaged in multi-billion-dollar trade and investment initiatives spanning sectors such as technology, energy and tourism. These economic incentives demonstrated the tangible benefits of normalization and provided a template for other nations to follow. In parallel, the accords aimed to strengthen regional security cooperation, creating a coalition to counter threats such as Iranian influence and extremism.
Now that Trump has returned to the presidency, he is likely prioritize the expansion of the Abraham Accords as part of his foreign policy agenda. His transactional approach, which often emphasized economic deals and security guarantees, could play a pivotal role in persuading additional nations to join.
Saudi Arabia and Oman, both of which have shown cautious interest in normalization, are frequently mentioned as potential candidates. Saudi Arabia’s involvement would be particularly significant, given its status as a regional heavyweight and its historical leadership of the Arab and Islamic worlds. However, Riyadh’s decision to join the accords would depend on various factors, including domestic political considerations, public opinion and the kingdom’s evolving relationship with the USA and Israel.
Oman, known for its neutral foreign policy, might also be enticed by economic incentives and security guarantees, aligning its strategic interests with the goals of the Abraham Accords.
The Biden Administration’s approach to the Abraham Accords has been supportive but less proactive. While the Administration has acknowledged the significance of these agreements, it has prioritized rebuilding traditional alliances in Europe and Asia over expanding Middle Eastern initiatives. This shift reflected broader changes in US foreign policy, which has pivoted away from direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts toward addressing challenges posed by great-power competition with China and Russia.
Under Biden, the Abraham Accords have not witnessed significant expansion, with the Administration focusing instead on maintaining the agreements’ existing framework. This more subdued engagement raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the accords, particularly as regional dynamics evolve.
One of the most contentious aspects of the Abraham Accords is their exclusion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Critics argue that the accords sideline Palestinian aspirations for statehood, undermining the broader prospects for peace in the region. The absence of meaningful progress on resolving this issue could strain relations between Israel and the Arab nations involved in the accords, particularly if domestic pressures in these countries intensify.
For instance, public opinion in several Arab states remains deeply sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. If Arab governments perceive normalization with Israel as compromising their support for Palestinian rights, they may face internal backlash. This dynamic underscores the importance of addressing the Palestinian question as part of any comprehensive strategy to sustain and expand the Abraham Accords. The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant transformations, influenced by shifting alliances and the growing involvement of external powers such as China and Russia.
Whether under a Trump Presidency or another administration, the future of the Abraham Accords will depend on the USA’s ability to navigate shifting regional dynamics, address unresolved issues such as the Palestinian question and sustain its leadership role. As the Middle East continues to evolve, the Abraham Accords stand as a testament to the possibilities of pragmatic diplomacy and the enduring pursuit of peace.
One of the most notable developments is the warming ties between Iran and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, mediated by China. This rapprochement could weaken the momentum of the Abraham Accords by encouraging Arab nations to reassess their alliances based on evolving regional priorities.
China’s growing influence in the Middle East adds another layer of complexity. As Beijing deepens its economic and diplomatic ties with the region, it may seek to position itself as a mediator in Middle Eastern affairs, potentially challenging the USA’s traditional role. Russia, too, has sought to expand its presence in the region, leveraging its military and energy partnerships to bolster its influence. These developments highlight the need for the USA to remain actively engaged in the Middle East to ensure the Abraham Accords’ continued relevance.
Despite the challenges, the Abraham Accords have already yielded substantial economic benefits, which could serve as a foundation for their expansion. Trade and investment between Israel and the UAE, for example, have flourished since the agreements were signed, with bilateral deals spanning critical sectors. These economic opportunities have demonstrated the potential for normalization to deliver tangible gains, creating incentives for other nations to join.
Additionally, the accords have fostered people-to-people exchanges, promoting cultural understanding and cooperation. Initiatives such as direct flights, joint tourism ventures and academic partnerships have strengthened ties between Israel and its Arab counterparts, further solidifying the agreements’ foundation. In a region marked by persistent security challenges, the Abraham Accords offer a framework for strategic alliances.
The agreements have facilitated closer coordination between Israel and its Arab partners on issues such as counterterrorism, cybersecurity and defense. This collaboration has the potential to serve as a counterbalance to Iran’s regional ambitions, providing a platform for collective security.
Under the Trump presidency or similar leadership, security guarantees could be a key tool for expanding the accords. By offering defence partnerships and military support, the USA could encourage additional nations to join, strengthening the coalition against shared threats. Public opinion in the Arab world has traditionally been skeptical of normalization with Israel, driven by historical grievances and solidarity with the Palestinian cause.
However, recent surveys suggest a gradual shift in attitudes, particularly among younger generations. Economic pragmatism, combined with changing social dynamics, has contributed to growing acceptance of normalization in some Arab countries. This evolving mindset could help sustain and grow the Abraham Accords, provided that governments address public concerns and demonstrate the tangible benefits of these agreements. Efforts to build trust and foster understanding between peoples will be critical to ensuring the accords’ long-term success.
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on several key factors:
- US Leadership: The extent to which the USA remains actively involved as a mediator and guarantor of the agreements will be crucial. A disengaged USA risks diminishing the accords’ momentum and leaving a vacuum for other powers to fill.
- Palestinian Issue: Addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains essential for ensuring the accords’ sustainability. Neglecting this issue could undermine the agreements’ credibility and alienate Arab publics.
- Regional Dynamics: The evolving geopolitical landscape, including Iran’s influence and the role of external powers, will shape the accords’ trajectory. Adapting to these changes will require flexibility and strategic foresight.
- Economic Incentives: Expanding economic cooperation will be vital for attracting new members to the accords. Demonstrating the tangible benefits of normalization can create a compelling case for participation.
- Public Engagement: Building support among Arab populations will be essential for sustaining the accords. Efforts to promote cultural exchange and mutual understanding can help overcome historical divisions.
The Abraham Accords represent a transformative development in Middle Eastern diplomacy, offering a pathway toward greater stability, economic integration and security cooperation. While challenges remain, the agreements have demonstrated their potential to reshape the region’s strategic landscape.
Whether under a Trump Presidency or another administration, the future of the Abraham Accords will depend on the USA’s ability to navigate shifting regional dynamics, address unresolved issues such as the Palestinian question and sustain its leadership role. As the Middle East continues to evolve, the Abraham Accords stand as a testament to the possibilities of pragmatic diplomacy and the enduring pursuit of peace.
