The consensus reached at the Paris Agreement in 2015 was to ideally limit temperature globally to below 1.5C, and to not allow it to reach anywhere near 2C. Moreover, it was also thought at the time of this agreement that the world had up till 2045 to implement policy as per the direction of this agreement. Having said, since then seeing the fast-unfolding nature of climate change, not only greater steps are needed to meet the desired global warming target, but in case such improvement in effort does not take place then the earlier timeline could be much sooner.
In this regard, a February 10, Financial Times (FT) published article ‘Risk the era of 1.5C of global warming i s here sooner than expected, studies find’ indicated ‘ When the agreement was signed, the world was projected to reach the 1.5C threshold by March 2045. Since then, the leading scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has modelled.
The writer holds PhD in Economics degree from the University of Barcelona, and previously worked at the International Monetary Fund. His contact on ‘X’ (formerly ‘Twitter’) i s @omerj aved7 median expectation for it to be passed around 2031, while the European earth agency put the potential breach of the benchmark in 2034, when it made its forecast a year ago.’ This indicates that the climate change crisis i s happening at a much higher pace that previously though, as indicated by the significant pickup in the intensity, and frequency of climate change related natural disasters, may that by the immense loss to life, and property caused by the catastrophic flooding in Pakistan – which in addition to a lot of loss to life, also ended up costing the economy reportedly around US$30 billion of dollars in lost property, infrastructure, and agriculture output, among others – or the more recent devastating wild fires in Los Angeles – where at least 10 people reportedly died, and economic loss reportedly stood in the range of US$135 billion and US$ 150 billion.
Hence, it i s not only important to implement the agreement reached in the Paris Agreement, and since then, but also to increase the quantity of steps, and the momentum. Among such steps, effort i s being made to understand better the dynamics of the ‘tipping points’, which result in these climate change related catastrophes.
Firstly, with regard to gearing up efforts to tackle the existential threat of climate change, which i s picking up pace quite rapidly, a very strong and vocal voice in this regard in the shape of the Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Barbados, Mi a Amor Mottley – who is also significantly pushing the case for greater, and more innovative ways of providing climate finance under the ‘ Bridgetown Initiative’, especially to developing countries, and among those, which are also among the top-most climate vulnerable countries, including suggesting provision of an annual climate change related provision of special drawing rights ( SDRs) by International Monetary Fund ( IMF) – in her February 17, Project Syndicate ( PS) published article ‘ Climate action demands global fraternity’ was critical of the lacking financial architecture globally to provide adequate climate finance to effectively deal with the climate change crisis. She pointed out in this regard in the article ‘While sea-level rise could directly affect 250 million people by the end of this century, it is already a lived reality for tens of millions in low-lying coastal countries and SIDS. Elsewhere, people are plagued by prolonged droughts and fires. …Simply put, this crisis demands global solidarity. … As it stands, the global financial architecture i s ill-equipped to address the climate crisis. It was designed for a different era that did not contemplate the interconnectedness of our economies and ecosystems or the dangers of global warming. The Bretton Woods institutions, for example, were established more than 80 years ago to help European economies recover from World War II. But the unprecedented scale and urgency of the climate crisis requires a new approach to unlock the financing that developing countries need for mitigation and adaptation. The system must be reformed to make sustainable development, climate resilience, and equitable access to finance its top priorities. This i s not charity; it is an investment in our collective future.’
Secondly, while it is important for global policymakers, and public opinion more generally that climate change requires a collective action, especially by those countries with the most carbon-footprint, both traditionally, and currently, it is also important to be as prepared as possible with regards to anticipating when and where another climate change catastrophe will likely happen. Here, with regard to the ‘tipping points’ a September 2022, Guardian published article ‘World on brink of five “disastrous” climate tipping points, study finds’ pointed out ‘The climate crisis has driven the world to the brink of multiple “disastrous” tipping points, according to a major study. … These include the collapse of the Greenland’s ice cap, eventually producing a huge sea level rise, the collapse of a key current in the north Atlantic, disrupting rain upon which billions of people depend for food, and an abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost. …In total, the researchers found evidence for 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global heating of at least 2C to be triggered, according to the scientists’ estimations. The tipping points would take effect on timescales varying from a few years to centuries.’
Recently, scientists have focussed on establishing an early warning system for two tipping points. A February 18, Guardian published article ‘Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart’ indicated in this regard ‘An ambitious attempt to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points will combine fleets of drones, cosmic ray detection and the patterns of plankton blooms with artificial intelligence and the most detailed computer models to date. The UK’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (Aria), which backs high-risk, high-reward projects, has awarded £81m to 27 teams. The quest i s to find signals that forewarn of the greatest climate catastrophes the climate crisis could trigger. Tipping points occur when global temperature i s pushed beyond a threshold, leading to unstoppable changes in the climate system. The programme focuses on two tipping points thought to be at very high risk of being triggered: the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, which would lead to a huge rise in sea levels, and the collapse of crucial ocean currents in the north Atlantic, which would cause global changes in rainfall and severely damage food supplies.’
The writer holds PhD in Economics degree from the University of Barcelona, and previously worked at International Monetary Fund.Prior to this, he did MSc. in Economics from the University of York (United Kingdom), and worked at the Ministry of Economic Affairs & Statistics (Pakistan), among other places. He is author of Springer published book (2016) ‘The economic impact of International Monetary Fund programmes: institutional quality, macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth’.He tweets @omerjaved7
