A spectre is haunting Europe, the spectre of regional wars, economic instability and technological disruption. The European Union is in quite turbulent condition because of its economic, political, and strategic dependency on external powers. The USA, now under the populist and hyper-nationalist leadership of President Donald Trump, is apathetic towards the strategic and economic partnerships of the post World War II liberal world order. Russia, despite economic hardships, is winning the Ukraine war. China has the upper hand in the economic domain, the balance of trade is in Chinese favour. Ostensibly, Europe has no option but to seek strategic autonomy in this volatile political situation.
It is imperative to decipher the concept of strategic autonomy in the context of Europe. Simply, it is the ability of the EU and its member states to act independently in the global political, economic, and strategic realms, without assistance and fear of other powers. It is mainly related to economic, technological, military, and defence capabilities. Strategic autonomy is the capacity to make decisions and take actions without foreign intervention, preponderance, and dependency.
Every sovereign country has always cherished autonomy in its external and internal matters. But the context of Europe is different, since the dawn of liberal world order which was implemented and led by the USA, European countries have preferred alliances and integration. The contemporaneous conditions are a vivid indication of a desirable shift in the strategic thought and practice of the European Union.
Strategic autonomy is the only solution for European defense and security. In the words of Emmanuel Macron, the EU needs to become the ‘third superpower’ by incorporating local defense capabilities. The visionary leaders of the EU like Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, have also advocated domestic capacity building. In a nutshell, Niccolò Machiavelli has vividly provided a solution for the strategic dilemma of the EU nations: “The main foundations of every state, new states as well as ancient or composite ones, are good laws and good arms”
The aspects of the European independent strategic policies, aspirations, and actions are manifold. Among European leaders from French President Emmanuel Macron to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, there is a strong sense of politically and strategically autonomous Europe. The public sentiment also projects a nuanced shift from the USA-led order to independent foreign and domestic policy making. According to a YouGov poll this month, around 67 percent of the European population do not view the Trump Administration positively. Even the far-right and populist leaders like Jimmie Åkesson and Marine Le Pen have rebuked and rebuffed the unilateral actions of President Trump.
The most perturbing issue for the European leaders is the shift in US policy. Trump has adopted a hawkish route in both economic and strategic domains. The Munich Security Conference in ebruary was a glaring display of contention between the USA and Europe. US Vice President J.D Vance lectured European leaders about their limited defence spendings. European leaders were reminded that the Ukraine war was of their own making. Such allegations of inaction have also been made by Trump during his Presidential campaign. European leaders are in deep strategic troubles, as they cannot rely on US security, strategic, and economic guarantees anymore.
Contemporaneously, European leadership has been facing several challenges to attain cogent and long-term strategic autonomy. European Union member states have fragmented defence programmes which are marked with duplication and inefficiency. This impedes coherent and effective efforts to face the challenge posed by Russia and other powers like China. The European Defense Agency projects that EU countries have spent $355 billion on their defence capabilities which is two percent of their GDP. Now, they have to make a choice between strategic dependency and strategic autonomy? The latter will require an increase in funding for the defense programmes.
The competing priorities are also hindering the strategic autonomy of the EU and its member states. The fiscal rules are tough and compel for social programmes over defence programmes. Decades of deindustrialization have left the military dependent on the USA. This combination of limited availability of funds and lack of local manufacturing capacity has ushered in dependency. In recent times, the focus has increased on European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and European Defence Industrial Programme (EIDP) to significant extent. Yet, it will require tangible actions and strong leadership, which is absent because of internal political divide and ideological non-alignment among the member states.
Keeping aside the challenges, there is a need to make sense of the benefits of the strategic autonomy for the European countries in this winter of global political and strategic calculus. First, it will enhance the defence capabilities of Europe, the fear of Russian imminent attack would be shunned. It will also assist European leaders to face the undue demands of President Trump. The distant strategic rivalry with China will also be managed. Simply, reliance on local defence capabilities will empower European leadership to tackle the strategic imbalances in the region.
Moreover, strategic autonomy in the defence, economic, and technological domains will necessarily ensure balance of power. For instance, technological independence will lead to cyber security, indigenous solutions, and improvements in the defence capabilities.
Strategic autonomy is the only solution for European defense and security. In the words of Emmanuel Macron, the EU needs to become the ‘third superpower’ by incorporating local defense capabilities. The visionary leaders of the EU like Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, have also advocated domestic capacity building. In a nutshell, Niccolò Machiavelli has vividly provided a solution for the strategic dilemma of the EU nations: “The main foundations of every state, new states as well as ancient or composite ones, are good laws and good arms.”
