It was bad enough that the Indian media came down like a ton of bricks on Pakistan for the Pahalgam attack, in which 26 tourists, one a Nepalese, were killed, and at least 17 others injured. However, by taking a slew of measures against Pakistan, India left no doubt about who it blamed, even though it refrained from making the outright accusation. The attack came out of the blue, and was not preceded by that series of smaller attacks one would expect if a terrorist outfit was involved. Considering India’s past record, which includes not only false-flag operations but assassinations on foreign soil, it seems as if the operation was launched so that India could take the steps it did. The most significant was suspending the Indus Basin Waters Treaty.
That raised hackles in Pakistan, because it represented an existential threat. Interestingly, the Treaty does not include any exit clause, which would have described how any party could leave the treaty. Further, the Treaty is underwritten by the World Bank. It is perhaps unfortunate that the Bank is presently headed by Ajaypal Singh Banga, who will hold office until 2028. Though a US citizen, he is the son of a retired lieutenant general of the Indian Army. How much justice can Pakistan expect from him? Still, there are a number of forums which Pakistan can agitate. It should not expect too much support, for the world powers may once again repeat the pusillanimity they have shown on the Kashmir issue, and go along with its narrative, no matter how risible, just because it is a large (though impoverished) market. The response of Pakistan’s National Security Committee, which was to put all other agreements in doubt, and to suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement. India has insisted ever since that the Kashmir issue could only be resolved bilaterally, and not raised at any international forum.
Pakistan has so far responded judiciously, and its civilian and military leadership has not shown any signs of panic. Yet at the same time, it should be acknowledged that war has not been so close since the Pulwama attack allegations by India in 2019. If war comes, it will have been imposed by India, but it will find Pakistan and Pakistanis fully prepared. However, the chances of the world powers stepping in to avert armed conflict between nuclear powers are bright. Hopefully, both sides can stay off the slippery slope of escalation.
