Russia’s recent decision to remove the Afghan Taliban from its terrorist list has sent ripples across the geopolitical landscape, stirring controversy and raising eyebrows among regional stakeholders. This move, which appears to reflect a dramatic shift in Moscow’s policy towards the Taliban, must be examined critically— not just as a diplomatic gesture but as a pragmatic decision driven by strategic compulsions.
Far from being a moral stance, Russia’s action underscores a deeper geopolitical calculation— one that has more to do with its own security needs than any ideological alignment with the Taliban’s policies. In doing so, a corridor from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad begins to take shape, anchored in security imperatives and realpolitik rather than shared values. This decision, however, has been met with concern, especially by countries like Pakistan, which continues to bear the brunt of terrorism emanating from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
This is not merely a diplomatic moment— it is a strategic inflection point. How Pakistan navigates this complex terrain will determine its future role as a stabilizing force in the region or a state repeatedly exposed to external shocks and internal insecurities. As the corridor from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad continues to evolve, it will either cement a new era of pragmatic cooperation or expose the limits of geopolitical convenience. The choice— and the burden— rests heavily on the regional players
Russia’s decision to de-list the Afghan Taliban is, at its core, a response to mounting security threats within the region. Moscow has been grappling with the increasing presence and activities of ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan, which represents a growing challenge to Russian interests, particularly in Central Asia. The March 2024 attack on a Moscow concert hall, attributed to ISIS-K, underscores the vulnerability that Russia faces from these radical groups. With Afghanistan’s Taliban regime now entrenched as the de facto government, Russia’s shift in stance can be seen as a strategic necessity, allowing Moscow to engage with the Taliban in an attempt to neutralize the growing threat posed by ISIS-K.
The Taliban, despite its history of violence and extremism, is seen by Russia as a stabilizing force in Afghanistan— one that, in their view, is crucial to combating more radical factions. The de-listing decision, while signaling a shift in Russia’s approach, should not be mistaken for a moral endorsement of the Taliban’s actions. Moscow’s priority, as always, is the protection of its own security interests, and in this context, the Taliban has become a necessary partner in managing the threat from ISIS-K. Herein lies the paradox of this evolving Moscow-Kabul-Islamabad axis: stability for one may mean insecurity for another.
While Russia may view the Taliban as a stabilizing force in Afghanistan, the reality on the ground is far more complicated. The Taliban’s ongoing support for groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has been wreaking havoc on Pakistan’s soil, cannot be ignored. The TTP, a terrorist group aligned with the Afghan Taliban, continues to exploit Afghanistan’s porous border with Pakistan to carry out attacks. These cross-border incursions have caused immense loss of life and destabilized the region. For Pakistan, Russia’s diplomatic overture to the Taliban is not just a shift in regional dynamics; it is a direct challenge to its national security. The Taliban’s dual-faced role— Russia’s partner, Pakistan’s peril— is the central contradiction in this budding axis.
What is particularly troubling about Russia’s decision is the apparent disregard for the views and concerns of neighbouring countries most affected by the Taliban’s actions. Pakistan, Iran, and the Central Asian republics have all voiced concerns about the Taliban’s role in exacerbating regional instability. Yet, Russia has chosen to proceed without significant consultation with these stakeholders. Pakistan, in particular, has long called for stronger action against the Afghan Taliban for allowing groups like the TTP to operate freely. In forging a unilateral path from Moscow to Kabul, Russia risks deepening fault lines with Islamabad—fault lines that could fracture the very axis it seeks to build.
This emerging dynamic— from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad— unfolds as a potential new geopolitical axis, one shaped more by security compulsions than cohesive strategy. In the absence of regional consensus, such alignments risk fostering unilateralism and fragmenting the already fragile South-Central Asian security architecture. The Taliban question sits at the heart of this axis, demanding urgent answers from all three capitals.
However, this development may also present Pakistan with a unique opportunity. While Russia’s decision has undoubtedly complicated the situation, it has also opened the door for Pakistan to reassert itself diplomatically. With Russia now engaging more directly with the Taliban, Pakistan could push for more pressure on the Afghan regime to take action against the TTP and other terrorist factions. If Pakistan can capitalize on this situation and forge a diplomatic channel with Russia, it could compel the Taliban to meet its counterterrorism obligations or face pressure from multiple fronts, including Moscow. Thus, Islamabad must move from being a passive observer of this axis to becoming a decisive actor within it.
In this context, the timing of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar’s visit to Kabul was particularly significant. Dar was aiming to address Islamabad’s security concerns and potentially thaw relations after a protracted stalemate. This visit presented an opportune moment for Pakistan to engage with the Taliban directly, pressing them to take concrete actions against the TTP. To maximize the effectiveness of these talks, Pakistan should coordinate with regional powers like Russia and China, leveraging their influence over the Taliban to ensure that Pakistan’s concerns are adequately addressed.
In parallel, Russia and Pakistan have agreed to bolster bilateral ties across diverse sectors, including energy, trade, defence, and connectivity— suggesting that the corridor from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad is no longer symbolic but rapidly materializing into a functional axis. This budding relationship, if carefully nurtured, could allow Pakistan to elevate its strategic profile while ensuring its primary national interest— security— remains safeguarded. Yet, the axis remains delicate, fraught with contradictions and divergent expectations.
Russia’s decision also highlights the fractured nature of the regional order and the growing complexity of international alliances. Moscow’s shift reflects a broader trend where national security priorities often trump ideological considerations. The Taliban’s role in Afghanistan, while stabilizing from Russia’s perspective in terms of countering ISIS-K, continues to be a destabilizing force for Pakistan. Russia’s decision is emblematic of a larger geopolitical realignment, where short-term security concerns are prioritized over long-term diplomatic relationships.
At this juncture, the Valdai Club’s recent observations on the emerging ‘New World Dis-order’ come into sharp focus. As Western hegemony wanes, regional powers are recalibrating their influence zones, and new axes are being formed—some disruptive, others opportunistic. The corridor from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad represents one such evolution— brimming with both promise and peril. Whether this axis becomes a bridge for cooperation or a conduit for contention depends on how the Taliban question is ultimately addressed.
In this context, Pakistan must not allow Russia’s policy shift to go unchallenged. By engaging with Moscow and other regional powers, Pakistan can seek to ensure that the Afghan Taliban does not become a source of further instability. Russia’s shift could, paradoxically, serve as an opportunity for Pakistan to push for a more robust regional strategy, one that places greater pressure on the Taliban to curb the activities of groups like the TTP. This is a critical moment for Pakistan, and how it navigates this challenge will have lasting implications for its security and its position in the region.
Ultimately, Russia’s decision to remove the Afghan Taliban from its terrorist list is emblematic of a broader recalibration in global alliances, driven less by ideology and more by strategic urgency. While Moscow seeks to safeguard its southern flank against threats like ISIS-K, it risks inadvertently empowering actors that jeopardize the security of its regional partners— especially Pakistan. This duality underscores the delicate tightrope regional powers must walk: maintaining security cooperation without compromising on the principle of zero tolerance for terrorism.
For Pakistan, the current diplomatic flux offers both a challenge and an opening. Islamabad must assert its national interests vigorously in the emerging power configurations. Through proactive diplomacy and strategic engagement, it must ensure that the Taliban are held accountable for harboring anti-Pakistan elements. The deepening of Pakistan-Russia ties, especially in the realms of energy, defense, trade, and counterterrorism— as indicated by recent high-level meetings and foreign policy statements— can become a cornerstone of a rebalanced regional order.
The world is shifting toward a multipolar architecture, where traditional alliances are being tested and new alignments forged under the shadow of geopolitical turbulence. In this evolving ‘new world dis-order’, Pakistan’s regional strategy must be anchored in sovereign security imperatives, principled diplomacy, and pragmatic partnerships. The emerging axis from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad is not just a corridor of interests but a crucible of contradictions. The Taliban’s unchecked support for militant factions like the TTP is not just a bilateral issue but a regional menace. Therefore, leveraging Russia’s outreach to the Taliban should be part of a broader collective push for sustainable peace and a region free from the scourge of extremism.
This is not merely a diplomatic moment— it is a strategic inflection point. How Pakistan navigates this complex terrain will determine its future role as a stabilizing force in the region or a state repeatedly exposed to external shocks and internal insecurities. As the corridor from Moscow to Kabul via Islamabad continues to evolve, it will either cement a new era of pragmatic cooperation or expose the limits of geopolitical convenience. The choice— and the burden— rests heavily on the regional players.
